Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34996959fc4776200acd09e2ee76078c4318982d9d41f8bc210ba5cb098a59ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 2,162$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.41 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.59 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 48c | 470.36$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 459.07$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 398.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 63c | 371.77$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 48c | 325$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 252.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 49c | 228.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 61c | 203.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 185.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 184.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 182.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 179.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 48c | 179$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 178.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 165$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ff…6494backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…2506backed No | 75c | 150$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 138$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 47c | 129$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 41c | 102.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 67c | 100.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 58c | 96.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 48c | 93.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 48c | 87.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 83.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 42c | 79.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 39c | 77.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 76.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 70.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 65.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 63.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 60.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 59.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 56.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 51.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 41c | 47.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 45.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 45.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 52c | 40.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 79c | 40.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 33c | 39.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 41c | 37.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 43c | 36.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 35.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed Yes | 59c | 35.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 33.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 60c | 33.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 41c | 32.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…ee82backed Yes | 76c | 31.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 30.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked No | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 27.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…1ababacked No | 44c | 26.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked No | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 74c | 14.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.