MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34bb3b85503b2bb998fdccd4d9837a2104df7cebf7393691c775ca5e8d7598f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Atlanta Braves, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x684b…8409backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 20,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,799.99 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 61c | 13,261$8,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,171.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 62c | 8,080$4,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 1,238$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.28 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 1,202$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.17 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 61c | 927.58$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets | 62c | 807.34$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.4 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 448.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 254.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 70c | 185.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 71c | 183.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 181.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 61c | 180.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 173$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 19c | 170$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 156.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked New York Mets | 62c | 144.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Mets | 62c | 139.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 134.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…0defbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 123.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Atlanta Braves | 26c | 119.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed New York Mets | 62c | 112.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed New York Mets | 70c | 112.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 106.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed New York Mets | 62c | 104$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795b…a25cbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 101.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed New York Mets | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 96.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 60c | 93.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Mets | 70c | 82.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked New York Mets | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed New York Mets | 62c | 54.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Mets | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked New York Mets | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked New York Mets | 63c | 30.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed New York Mets | 63c | 30.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed New York Mets | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 25.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 72c | 21.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked New York Mets | 62c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed New York Mets | 61c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed New York Mets | 55c | 18.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked New York Mets | 59c | 17.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.