MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4f5c89e4e3122f3e9153e389ce314932dcde69ee21a73ba0add82d66d1428ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 44c | 11,263$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 7,967$4,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,894.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 4,819$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,376.51 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 4,499$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 4,447$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 3,115$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…bd87backed Under | 9c | 2,778$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…401fbacked Under | 9c | 2,006$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 60c | 1,676$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.48 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 45c | 1,197$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.36 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 41c | 1,024$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.16 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 925$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.95 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 39c | 590.08$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.69 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…20b0backed Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -6.7wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 74c | 495.5$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 9c | 472$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 51c | 304.97$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 64c | 301$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 265.96$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 57c | 245.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 232$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 45c | 216.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 50c | 139.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Under | 9c | 112.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 111$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 102.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 60c | 87.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Over | 41c | 83.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 59c | 73.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 60c | 70.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Under | 17c | 63.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…bd32backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 60c | 59.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 42c | 53.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 53c | 35.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 43c | 35.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Over | 64c | 33.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 30.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 60c | 29.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 60c | 29.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 59c | 27.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 60c | 25.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 52c | 24.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 68c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 21.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…1196backed Over | 57c | 19.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.