NBA · resolved market
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3589dd63f34afd01a38b9e30b5f5ad39daf5abe87ec34a963c5ef1e470c3dec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 44c | 1,235$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.64 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 56c | 621.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.46 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 56c | 285.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.71 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…8b63backed Yes | 54c | 276.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 56c | 266.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…f384backed Yes | 56c | 169.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 44c | 139.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 40c | 108.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 45c | 101.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdffd…924fbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 54c | 66.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 56c | 53.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…c2c4backed No | 25c | 44.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…162dbacked Yes | 75c | 44.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 40c | 32.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…c622backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +9.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.