TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,521

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,502 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf7…8f79backed No46c686.34$319 inLost-$318.551,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Yes55c365$201 inWon+$163.97237.5%27 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Yes51c323.26$164 inWon+$159.2620247.5%96 W · 106 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No50c300$150 inLost-$15039864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Yes53c287.98$153 inWon+$135.3520558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No42c199.99$84 inLost-$8412347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Yes55c72.73$40 inWon+$32.7314649.3%72 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc6…97b7backed Yes47c60$28 inWon+$31.92166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No41c52.44$21 inLost-$21.556050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes59c49.22$29 inWon+$20.188354.2%45 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Yes58c34.43$20 inWon+$14.438544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No42c29.99$13 inLost-$12.5943752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No49c24$12 inLost-$11.7626755.1%147 W · 120 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Yes55c23.64$13 inWon+$10.6434556.2%194 W · 151 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf557…e001backed Yes58c22.76$13 inWon+$9.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.