TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,900 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Pistons51c5,000$2,550 inLost-$2,549.9932846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Cavaliers49c4,551$2,230 inWon+$2,321.025935.6%21 W · 38 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pistons48c956.47$460 inLost-$460.3250346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0764…41d1backed Cavaliers49c612.16$300 inWon+$312.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Cavaliers51c392.84$200 inWon+$192.8436248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1b…b9c4backed Cavaliers52c371.94$193 inWon+$178.943735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pistons51c295$150 inLost-$150.451,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc0…099dbacked Pistons55c237.86$130 inLost-$129.776653%35 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers47c211.23$99 inWon+$112.512,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Cavaliers53c188.68$100 inWon+$88.6814443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5c7…5cecbacked Pistons51c184.62$95 inLost-$953351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb221…a639backed Pistons58c150.69$87 inLost-$87.24637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Cavaliers45c137.66$62 inWon+$75.4917946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Cavaliers49c135.02$66 inWon+$69.1210545.7%48 W · 57 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76a4…6207backed Pistons51c130.71$66 inLost-$66.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Cavaliers42c130.69$55 inWon+$75.879650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers44c113.93$50 inWon+$64.376653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Pistons50c107$54 inLost-$53.542740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Cavaliers49c105.55$51 inWon+$54.1962047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed Cavaliers49c100$49 inWon+$513735.1%13 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x327b…c999backed Cavaliers53c94.73$50 inWon+$44.731838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Cavaliers46c87$40 inWon+$46.9862049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Cavaliers49c71.26$35 inWon+$36.623741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Pistons52c42.75$22 inLost-$22.2321056.7%119 W · 91 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Pistons48c41.68$20 inLost-$20.011,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed Pistons51c35$18 inLost-$17.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Cavaliers50c32$16 inWon+$168053.8%43 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabc6…8f2dbacked Cavaliers50c28.62$14 inWon+$14.354100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Pistons51c27.64$14 inLost-$14.11,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Pistons51c26.07$13 inLost-$13.2918653.2%99 W · 87 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked Cavaliers65c22.95$15 inWon+$8.0313759.9%82 W · 55 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.