NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e6e6e51efd2608056dd466f5058fc3a15a67916a77c981c2f3f807af4cd78dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Cavaliers, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Pistons | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.95 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Cavaliers | 51c | 4,984$2,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.61 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Pistons | 52c | 3,215$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers | 48c | 2,972$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.25 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 1,432$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.37 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Cavaliers | 51c | 739.92$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.36 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Pistons | 47c | 643.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.94 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Pistons | 77c | 616.28$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.39 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 436.24$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.48 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…c762backed Pistons | 49c | 436.24$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Pistons | 53c | 377.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.75 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Cavaliers | 48c | 208.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Pistons | 51c | 197.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers | 21c | 156.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Cavaliers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ae…4589backed Pistons | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…c709backed Pistons | 63c | 78.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…66d4backed Cavaliers | 50c | 61.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Cavaliers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…f675backed Pistons | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Pistons | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 40.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cavaliers | 45c | 34.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Pistons | 79c | 33.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cavaliers | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cavaliers | 37c | 32.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…ba4bbacked Pistons | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Pistons | 49c | 29.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Cavaliers | 50c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Cavaliers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Cavaliers | 51c | 28.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Cavaliers | 73c | 24.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6198…d0ffbacked Pistons | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.