TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Cavaliers, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,186 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe193…cc85backed Pistons72c3,333$2,400 inWon+$933.246457.8%37 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cavaliers28c3,333$933 inLost-$933.2430551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers49c327$161 inLost-$161.041,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c4…ffc4backed Cavaliers39c307.95$120 inLost-$1203852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Pistons51c229.84$117 inWon+$112.4289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Pistons64c182.16$116 inWon+$66.341,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Pistons71c155.52$111 inWon+$44.8722844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Pistons47c110$51 inWon+$58.8489850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Cavaliers35c68.86$24 inLost-$24.155751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Cavaliers35c68.86$24 inLost-$24.120247.5%96 W · 106 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Cavaliers35c68.86$24 inLost-$24.121849.5%108 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Cavaliers35c68.86$24 inLost-$24.121046.2%97 W · 113 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Cavaliers35c68.86$24 inLost-$24.118444.6%82 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Cavaliers35c68.86$24 inLost-$24.133159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Pistons79c67$53 inWon+$14.079061.1%55 W · 35 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Cavaliers28c66.63$19 inLost-$18.6624332.9%80 W · 163 L-22.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Pistons72c66$47 inWon+$18.6134255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Pistons65c45.88$30 inWon+$15.8833556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers50c40$20 inLost-$2040548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f9…19a0backed Pistons70c30$21 inWon+$9757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b5…5b9cbacked Pistons69c28.96$20 inWon+$8.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7349backed Pistons71c28.17$20 inWon+$8.1721574.4%160 W · 55 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers47c21.35$10 inLost-$10.155251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked Cavaliers50c20$10 inLost-$102454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.