Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36cfe8e62cd3dbfcc90f4da0072023c7d40dfcc3452a5064175cdec421c975c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,664 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 9,623$6,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,513.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 59c | 3,500$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.99 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 43c | 3,413$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.68 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,992$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.55 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…72d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,436$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 37c | 1,430$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.51 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 1,419$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,314$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.84 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 41c | 1,246$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.05 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 63c | 1,205$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.85 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 35c | 1,028$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.8 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 35c | 770.66$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.17 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 7c | 610.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 42c | 571.43$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 36c | 533$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 41c | 487.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 41c | 425.06$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.27 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 61c | 412.77$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.02 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 42c | 399.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked No | 62c | 398.39$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 37c | 363.12$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 59c | 350$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 9c | 344.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 6c | 339.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 41c | 334.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 38c | 307.45$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 59c | 291.53$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 40c | 286$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaeb…bb75backed Yes | 4c | 248.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 58c | 241.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 41c | 175.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 41c | 168.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 57c | 164.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…591abacked No | 59c | 164.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38ea…95d1backed No | 66c | 151.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed No | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 127.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 40c | 120.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Yes | 43c | 89.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 44c | 89.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 85.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 33c | 84.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 34c | 79.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 41c | 79.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…352ebacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 42c | 65.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 63c | 65.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked No | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 63c | 55.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf320…bd1cbacked No | 59c | 51.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 38c | 50.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…d44dbacked No | 65c | 50.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Yes | 36c | 45.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed No | 59c | 42.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 38c | 39.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed Yes | 42c | 36.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed No | 66c | 34.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb61e…a10bbacked No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 28.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed No | 58c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 59c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 59c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.