Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3745732f0522e40a0acdc03bb46c33c1f3cbf088f9b54f5743f00a9730220223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 15c | 7,081$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.69 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Under | 71c | 1,268$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.61 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 11c | 727.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Over | 44c | 691.5$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 500.5$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.87 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 20c | 462.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde92…01ebbacked Under | 68c | 356.57$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 25c | 244$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…878cbacked Under | 63c | 157.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 66c | 151.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 141.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Over | 30c | 106.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 86.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Under | 70c | 63.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +7.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under | 62c | 49.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…d2b5backed Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Over | 32c | 41.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 65c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed Under | 64c | 16.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.