Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefefcc25b0da32e24dc7c0f584659986cb5644e930206f013b1a7b29d698c30e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 28c | 5,564$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.01 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 4,912$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.43 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 72c | 4,168$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.04 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 73c | 1,970$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 1,911$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.18 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Over | 71c | 1,246$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.34 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over | 71c | 1,005$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.4 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed Over | 70c | 861.38$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 72c | 765.78$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.42 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 66c | 699.99$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Under | 29c | 647.79$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 468.49$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 70c | 457$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 26c | 416$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 408.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 66c | 387.41$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b44…2966backed Over | 72c | 386.4$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Under | 29c | 378$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Over | 71c | 339.97$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 28c | 338.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 72c | 200.27$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…8b4cbacked Under | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 72c | 180.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 19c | 148.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Over | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 71c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…0123backed Over | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb56…efa6backed Under | 31c | 108.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -76%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 74c | 101.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2321…6a04backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 29c | 87.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…e639backed Over | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Over | 72c | 69.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 28c | 68.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed Over | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd73…3cc4backed Under | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…ac2bbacked Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 71c | 43.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 71c | 32.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Over | 73c | 31.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…c577backed Over | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…67f5backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Over | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 72c | 24.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…09a1backed Over | 72c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5414…30d0backed Over | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.