Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc723c5ae2aae98fe46dfc9e78e68ea9a00f4a4c3d861cf08d0cf3e5eab090fe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AC Milanof AC Milan, Bologna FC 1909
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AC Milan | 17c | 16,002$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,349.18 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb2…3959backed AC Milan | 17c | 3,224$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,675.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed AC Milan | 18c | 2,797$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,296.79 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked AC Milan | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.72 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked AC Milan | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed AC Milan | 58c | 1,368$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.78 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AC Milan | 58c | 1,244$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.89 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed AC Milan | 17c | 999.66$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.72 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c95…0969backed AC Milan | 18c | 950$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…f645backed AC Milan | 17c | 823.53$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.53 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…1258backed Bologna FC 1909 | 67c | 600$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed AC Milan | 15c | 334$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AC Milan | 67c | 326.51$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed AC Milan | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked AC Milan | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked AC Milan | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked AC Milan | 17c | 287.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.08 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked AC Milan | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked AC Milan | 19c | 269.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.02 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked AC Milan | 29c | 258.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.62 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed AC Milan | 17c | 216.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf82…97f3backed Bologna FC 1909 | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed AC Milan | 17c | 129.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked AC Milan | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked AC Milan | 16c | 115$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked AC Milan | 18c | 113.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked AC Milan | 16c | 110$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Bologna FC 1909 | 52c | 102.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Bologna FC 1909 | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed AC Milan | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked AC Milan | 16c | 86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AC Milan | 65c | 68.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked AC Milan | 76c | 55.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…947cbacked AC Milan | 30c | 33.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AC Milan | 35c | 33.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Bologna FC 1909 | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Bologna FC 1909 | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.