Tennis · resolved market
Lille: Sebastian Ofner vs Hugo Gaston
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x375131d18e8f86760f2db9a11d9162bddde59effdaf6fd4e45cffa3f47e06f71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gastonof Ofner, Gaston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4699…5051backed Ofner | 16c | 4,991$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.91 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Ofner | 35c | 1,556$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.15 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gaston | 69c | 1,407$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.67 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Gaston | 67c | 1,293$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.66 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Ofner | 34c | 1,179$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Ofner | 21c | 1,116$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.07 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed Ofner | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…8738backed Ofner | 37c | 900$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…04c0backed Gaston | 63c | 900$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Ofner | 38c | 797.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Gaston | 64c | 776.83$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.83 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked Ofner | 18c | 694.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 168 | 30.4%51 W · 117 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Gaston | 63c | 608$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.83 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…16ccbacked Ofner | 20c | 476.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Ofner | 36c | 473.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.49 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Ofner | 6c | 457.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Ofner | 42c | 410$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Gaston | 64c | 404$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Gaston | 63c | 398.41$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.41 | 196 | 53.6%105 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…ed22backed Gaston | 58c | 367.07$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Ofner | 37c | 340$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Ofner | 30c | 339.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Gaston | 68c | 322$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Gaston | 64c | 310.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.75 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Ofner | 39c | 306.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Ofner | 19c | 264.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Ofner | 41c | 244.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Gaston | 62c | 242.74$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ofner | 38c | 219.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…71d5backed Gaston | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…1a16backed Ofner | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ofner | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…2ed2backed Gaston | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Gaston | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Ofner | 36c | 199.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ofner | 37c | 182.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…d48cbacked Ofner | 38c | 180$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3c…6a39backed Gaston | 62c | 180$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Gaston | 61c | 159.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Gaston | 80c | 146$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 172 | 60.5%104 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Gaston | 63c | 131.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Gaston | 62c | 131.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Gaston | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Gaston | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Ofner | 27c | 118$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Gaston | 62c | 101.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Gaston | 62c | 100.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ofner | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…6dc1backed Gaston | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…dc5abacked Gaston | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.40per pick | 29cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Ofner | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ofner | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Ofner | 37c | 95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 552 | 41.3%228 W · 324 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ofner | 34c | 94.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Gaston | 64c | 85.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 259 | 50.2%130 W · 129 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Ofner | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca3…0a58backed Gaston | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Ofner | 30c | 67.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Ofner | 34c | 64.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…a929backed Ofner | 32c | 60.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Gaston | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Ofner | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x725d…e49abacked Ofner | 49c | 54.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ofner | 22c | 53.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Gaston | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ofner | 34c | 49.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Gaston | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Gaston | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Ofner | 46c | 44.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…5adbbacked Gaston | 69c | 43.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 331 | 63.7%211 W · 120 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Gaston | 77c | 40.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Ofner | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb172…ffa1backed Ofner | 33c | 34.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 148 | 28.4%42 W · 106 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Gaston | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc5…908abacked Ofner | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 587 | 53.7%315 W · 272 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…9baebacked Gaston | 54c | 27.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 908 | 54.5%495 W · 413 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Gaston | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…d240backed Gaston | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…292abacked Gaston | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Gaston | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb846…b8d0backed Gaston | 61c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Ofner | 65c | 16.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Gaston | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.