TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Evil Geniusesof Evil Geniuses, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$331,721
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$398,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,721 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f9c…34d9backed FURIA Esports55c37,018$20,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,236.0720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Evil Geniuses45c36,620$16,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,152.3917948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FURIA Esports41c13,091$5,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,377.4640945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed FURIA Esports54c11,233$6,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,107.886038.3%23 W · 37 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Evil Geniuses67c10,827$7,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.417164.8%46 W · 25 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FURIA Esports13c9,995$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.2365559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FURIA Esports24c9,964$2,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.5253159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Evil Geniuses44c8,414$3,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,721.1828143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed FURIA Esports57c8,154$4,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,629.573046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd794…248bbacked Evil Geniuses50c6,648$3,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,326.31770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Evil Geniuses46c6,412$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,462.6119860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Evil Geniuses46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2404131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Evil Geniuses46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2402356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed FURIA Esports39c6,000$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.731442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA Esports23c5,862$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.1768458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Evil Geniuses47c5,706$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,996.484158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Evil Geniuses73c5,000$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4301…ac39backed FURIA Esports47c4,096$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed FURIA Esports48c3,689$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.786746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed Evil Geniuses60c3,293$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.6913355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Evil Geniuses46c3,202$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.123956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Evil Geniuses47c2,851$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.1312951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed FURIA Esports26c2,626$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.655143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed FURIA Esports29c2,248$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.8956551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed FURIA Esports53c2,236$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.363955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Evil Geniuses59c2,157$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.682759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Evil Geniuses64c2,007$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.2994361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Evil Geniuses43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14032245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FURIA Esports57c1,996$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.8293049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Evil Geniuses51c1,952$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.162245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FURIA Esports11c1,934$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0653355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed FURIA Esports50c1,882$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.533551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41d1…bac0backed Evil Geniuses80c1,861$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4087…3643backed FURIA Esports54c1,824$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed FURIA Esports14c1,805$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed FURIA Esports52c1,756$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.111936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Evil Geniuses59c1,645$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.6835142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FURIA Esports46c1,388$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.0615147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed FURIA Esports36c1,360$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.132955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7bd…ebcebacked FURIA Esports52c1,308$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Evil Geniuses71c1,300$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3773857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked FURIA Esports58c1,300$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.4710346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Evil Geniuses51c1,268$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.786050%30 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FURIA Esports47c1,231$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.556357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Evil Geniuses55c1,148$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.719737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked FURIA Esports53c1,111$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.8355152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed FURIA Esports53c1,089$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.43240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02f8…2239backed FURIA Esports53c1,059$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.22742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Evil Geniuses50c1,030$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.6278562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed FURIA Esports56c1,029$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.932630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked FURIA Esports55c1,000$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.726450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked FURIA Esports10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed FURIA Esports52c999.99$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.995459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked FURIA Esports55c999.98$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9919751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FURIA Esports14c949$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13281134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed FURIA Esports65c934.58$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FURIA Esports10c930$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310455.8%58 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed FURIA Esports16c917.28$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.446462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked FURIA Esports37c916.4$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.7768949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FURIA Esports22c822.69$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.811,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb1…aebabacked Evil Geniuses54c768.72$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.44445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FURIA Esports37c715.06$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.2344342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FURIA Esports36c661.96$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2539646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Evil Geniuses46c635$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.35341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8616…3bb0backed Evil Geniuses48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3126848.5%33 W · 35 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed FURIA Esports52c600$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3125052%26 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed FURIA Esports53c600$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31527145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Evil Geniuses46c581.42$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.9725556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked FURIA Esports54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed FURIA Esports54c555.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9917948.6%87 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed FURIA Esports27c502.56$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7849255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FURIA Esports10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Evil Geniuses64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Evil Geniuses48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2603852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed FURIA Esports57c470$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.919546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Evil Geniuses73c468.92$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6588844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ae…3ca3backed Evil Geniuses43c465$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.053342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed FURIA Esports10c462$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3623732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked FURIA Esports5c456.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3428743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab93…8479backed Evil Geniuses44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.553450%17 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x835b…118fbacked FURIA Esports17c450$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a6…73c7backed Evil Geniuses45c447.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.644052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c1e…64d0backed Evil Geniuses44c446.25$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.251729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-43%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked FURIA Esports53c400$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3686747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Evil Geniuses48c399.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20825555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ce…11a2backed FURIA Esports49c391.37$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed FURIA Esports8c368$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.94447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed FURIA Esports55c365.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007544%33 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Evil Geniuses65c362.63$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6325336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Evil Geniuses64c355.43$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.532462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked FURIA Esports51c350$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1806841.2%28 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked FURIA Esports19c347.85$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5316420.1%33 W · 131 L-20.1wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-49.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Evil Geniuses73c343.64$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7851749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FURIA Esports6c338.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8846326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff95…9064backed Evil Geniuses54c330.27$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.752356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x885a…e1e3backed Evil Geniuses60c329.9$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Evil Geniuses74c325.18$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5523463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Evil Geniuses50c310$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15522449.1%110 W · 114 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Evil Geniuses60c300.78$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.7560154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc34…0953backed FURIA Esports40c300$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.