TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Evil Geniusesof Evil Geniuses, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$305,347
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$314,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,347 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed FURIA Esports45c38,972$17,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,593.3724145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Evil Geniuses56c12,114$6,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,357.9856357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Evil Geniuses50c10,000$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,995.9353159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Evil Geniuses58c10,000$5,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,241.3765559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Evil Geniuses56c9,166$5,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,987.5153355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Evil Geniuses59c8,253$4,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,414.1168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA Esports43c7,488$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,193.231,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FURIA Esports43c7,159$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,045.2940945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Evil Geniuses55c3,460$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.9294361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Evil Geniuses52c3,446$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.0778562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Evil Geniuses63c3,331$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.4181134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed FURIA Esports49c3,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4601442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FURIA Esports45c2,398$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.231,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Evil Geniuses61c2,279$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.872055%11 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked FURIA Esports44c1,687$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7506050%30 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed FURIA Esports33c1,500$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.85143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked FURIA Esports29c1,205$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35017642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked FURIA Esports40c1,200$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.89151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Evil Geniuses46c1,097$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.085341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Evil Geniuses40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002450%12 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed FURIA Esports28c975.77$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6456551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Evil Geniuses76c789.47$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.472850%14 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed FURIA Esports65c774$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.686930.4%21 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Evil Geniuses49c759.1$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.1484838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed Evil Geniuses62c725.83$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.837749.4%38 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Evil Geniuses55c645.61$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.5235142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed Evil Geniuses60c641.44$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.8713355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FURIA Esports41c619.27$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.251,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Evil Geniuses43c500$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.4246347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x384d…d922backed FURIA Esports58c483.51$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.811833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Evil Geniuses71c450.95$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8862156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…9b8fbacked FURIA Esports54c377.72$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9710348.5%50 W · 53 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Evil Geniuses58c375.48$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.251,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Evil Geniuses57c357.2$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6668949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed FURIA Esports32c352.23$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.460022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb1…d11ebacked Evil Geniuses41c343.59$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.591369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+41.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked FURIA Esports35c324$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.411044.5%49 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed Evil Geniuses75c323.87$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9718460.9%112 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Evil Geniuses72c285.37$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.31,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Evil Geniuses38c283.69$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.891546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked FURIA Esports23c262.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.21752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Evil Geniuses41c259.96$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.382429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed FURIA Esports23c206.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.043834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked FURIA Esports28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FURIA Esports61c175.6$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.371,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed FURIA Esports27c168.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9569722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Evil Geniuses64c159.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2416963.3%107 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed FURIA Esports35c157.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.894658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x92b9…7c77backed FURIA Esports31c145.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed FURIA Esports36c129.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.819240.1%77 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x656e…9339backed FURIA Esports32c124.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5919439.2%76 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Evil Geniuses50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6034253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf2…dfa9backed FURIA Esports45c117.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536456.3%36 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…76fabacked Evil Geniuses55c109.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.86352.4%33 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x422d…7e39backed FURIA Esports51c107.11$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.325858.6%34 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Evil Geniuses47c107$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5710844.4%48 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked FURIA Esports42c105.43$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4290733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Evil Geniuses69c104.7$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3835331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed FURIA Esports50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd2…0985backed FURIA Esports47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0181…9b5fbacked Evil Geniuses45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5527850%139 W · 139 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5746…4184backed Evil Geniuses26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31dd…4537backed FURIA Esports33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FURIA Esports30c97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.871,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0c…da03backed Evil Geniuses60c91.9$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0111738.5%45 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FURIA Esports42c91.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6988844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea86…6fb4backed Evil Geniuses55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.919255.4%51 W · 41 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Evil Geniuses68c86.69$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5796245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked FURIA Esports47c85.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409455.3%52 W · 42 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed FURIA Esports36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011237.5%42 W · 70 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked FURIA Esports47c78.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6834954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f90…4af9backed Evil Geniuses64c76.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.56771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed FURIA Esports15c76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1966438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…95e2backed FURIA Esports46c73.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed FURIA Esports53c73.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0263955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked FURIA Esports37c67.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516839.3%66 W · 102 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Evil Geniuses47c65.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.096850%34 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed FURIA Esports58c64.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.114852.7%78 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb1…8c1dbacked FURIA Esports31c59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.29812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-70.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x10d7…bbf6backed FURIA Esports31c58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.921560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3596…d91cbacked Evil Geniuses70c55.54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.667768.8%53 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c7c…ba26backed Evil Geniuses38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.63742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x304f…af95backed Evil Geniuses58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc07b…161cbacked Evil Geniuses25c50.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+304.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Evil Geniuses56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0738950.6%197 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94e8…f707backed FURIA Esports50c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244946.9%23 W · 26 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed FURIA Esports32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75a7…25f8backed FURIA Esports57c43.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed FURIA Esports47c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.215032%16 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FURIA Esports54c41.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6344342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Evil Geniuses46c41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1428143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07df…9f0cbacked FURIA Esports47c40.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.994146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed FURIA Esports42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.88349.4%41 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed FURIA Esports46c39.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.224250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Evil Geniuses54c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.841,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed FURIA Esports55c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.299846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b7…5f6bbacked FURIA Esports41c36.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510061%61 W · 39 L+9.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee16…16a2backed Evil Geniuses58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4817948%86 W · 93 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked FURIA Esports39c33.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0732157.6%185 W · 136 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cf1…d7febacked FURIA Esports36c32.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.884755.3%26 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+37.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.