NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3800c67538f0b638170fa2ebd2e1b234611da07e5572df7e50af9d7e6528695f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Patriots | 47c | 27,549$12,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,716.17 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Patriots | 46c | 20,000$9,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,800 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Browns | 53c | 15,793$8,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,370.07 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Patriots | 46c | 14,945$6,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,138.92 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Browns | 54c | 11,375$6,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,142.64 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Browns | 54c | 9,118$4,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,923.66 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Browns | 54c | 8,800$4,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,763.47 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Patriots | 46c | 4,718$2,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548.56 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Browns | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Browns | 54c | 3,887$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.1 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Browns | 54c | 2,167$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Browns | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Browns | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.08 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Browns | 54c | 1,847$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.32 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Browns | 54c | 1,832$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.28 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Browns | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Browns | 54c | 1,638$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.47 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Browns | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Browns | 54c | 903.32$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.79 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Patriots | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Browns | 54c | 742$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.68 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Browns | 54c | 730.24$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.33 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…08fbbacked Browns | 56c | 625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…2c5abacked Browns | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Browns | 54c | 434$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Patriots | 45c | 430$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Browns | 54c | 401.83$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.69 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…9edabacked Patriots | 47c | 372.34$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Browns | 54c | 342.59$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Browns | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Browns | 56c | 213.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Browns | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…a6c4backed Browns | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Browns | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Patriots | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Patriots | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Browns | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…59d7backed Patriots | 46c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Browns | 55c | 63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…11debacked Patriots | 47c | 53.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Patriots | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Patriots | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Browns | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Browns | 53c | 27.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a5…983cbacked Browns | 55c | 26.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Browns won
- Browns vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Browns vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Browns vs. Patriots: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.