NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Patriots: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75fa9095b9b2ccbf4538fff8088ab3b48cf363b37e7370a486fa0eaf3775e903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 51c | 92,048$47,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,263.61 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 41,869$20,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,470.94 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 52c | 21,862$11,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,316.14 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 17,634$8,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,993.34 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 48c | 4,789$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.32 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 3,139$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.62 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 3,073$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.55 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 49c | 3,073$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.26 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 49c | 3,021$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.47 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 44c | 2,932$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.62 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,499$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.09 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 49c | 2,465$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.15 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 50c | 2,270$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Over | 49c | 2,058$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.73 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 60c | 1,625$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,601$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.54 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9df…70f1backed Under | 53c | 1,433$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…2da1backed Over | 49c | 1,433$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 1,098$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.22 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 48c | 842.45$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.07 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 49c | 817$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.67 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 49c | 532$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.32 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 489.8$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 450$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 48c | 330.16$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.68 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…eb9fbacked Over | 66c | 305$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 195$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…af17backed Under | 52c | 117.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 79.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…ef82backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed Under | 53c | 34.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Under | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…eb70backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…d9adbacked Over | 49c | 20.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…8174backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Patriots: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Browns won
- Browns vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Browns vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.