NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6d745525ff5ccd80218916dcf7f517564fa6847a8d03893ff4a74c98ddcdd72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Patriots | 53c | 50,000$26,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,500 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Patriots | 52c | 38,990$20,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,529.31 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Browns | 47c | 30,000$14,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,100 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Browns | 48c | 29,116$13,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,975.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Browns | 47c | 28,500$13,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,395.15 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Patriots | 53c | 24,732$13,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,623.95 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Browns | 47c | 21,331$10,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,025.59 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Patriots | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Browns | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Browns | 46c | 7,000$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,219.99 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Browns | 47c | 5,862$2,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,755 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Browns | 46c | 4,449$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.78 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Browns | 46c | 3,960$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.39 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Patriots | 54c | 3,510$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.5 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Patriots | 54c | 3,500$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Patriots | 54c | 3,057$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.2 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Patriots | 54c | 3,002$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.9 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Browns | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Browns | 45c | 2,787$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.28 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Patriots | 54c | 2,257$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.03 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Browns | 46c | 2,057$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.01 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Patriots | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…1656backed Patriots | 53c | 1,000$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Patriots | 55c | 913.61$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.61 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Patriots | 54c | 785.19$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.19 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Browns | 46c | 750.54$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.3 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…9fb0backed Patriots | 54c | 631.83$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Browns | 46c | 588.89$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.89 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Patriots | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Patriots | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Browns | 47c | 427.5$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Patriots | 53c | 391.43$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.97 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Patriots | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Patriots | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Browns | 47c | 340$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Patriots | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Patriots | 54c | 280$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Browns | 47c | 276.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Patriots | 54c | 253$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Browns | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725c…01a1backed Patriots | 54c | 218.52$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…051fbacked Patriots | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Browns | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Browns | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…9edabacked Patriots | 55c | 128$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Browns | 48c | 126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Patriots | 53c | 113.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Patriots | 40c | 108.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Browns | 48c | 104.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…dfa7backed Browns | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Patriots | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Patriots | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…b210backed Patriots | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Patriots | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Patriots | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Browns | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…ef82backed Patriots | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…e662backed Patriots | 54c | 63.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Browns | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Browns | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…73a4backed Browns | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Patriots | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Patriots | 54c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Patriots | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Patriots | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…a394backed Patriots | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…009bbacked Patriots | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Browns | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Patriots | 52c | 26.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Patriots | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…bc16backed Patriots | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Browns won
- Browns vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Browns vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Browns vs. Patriots: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.