TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Golden Knights vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Golden Knights, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$347,669
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$362,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,669 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x821d…0a01backed Lightning56c71,023$39,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,250.7321652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lightning56c62,352$35,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,286.1788151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed Golden Knights45c61,865$27,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,572.895253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6253…20a6backed Golden Knights43c25,000$10,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,7504447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Lightning55c24,232$13,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,804.533855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Golden Knights44c22,582$10,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,021.7130848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7168…5388backed Lightning50c15,488$7,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7442100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+250%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Lightning56c14,751$8,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,440.26254.8%34 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Golden Knights44c13,324$5,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,917.8958841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Golden Knights44c11,823$5,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,202.33865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Golden Knights44c11,222$4,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,932.0830944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Golden Knights44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4002445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Golden Knights43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30010352.4%54 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedff…7218backed Golden Knights20c9,250$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Golden Knights44c9,100$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00419451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lightning56c9,074$5,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000.6441246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2a37backed Golden Knights50c6,238$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1192147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+73.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Lightning55c5,284$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.8616656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning64c4,598$2,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.0489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Golden Knights46c4,444$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.231,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning55c4,144$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.9963249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Golden Knights44c4,054$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.8937847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights42c4,030$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.713,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Golden Knights43c3,969$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.731,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Lightning57c3,500$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50530447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Golden Knights45c3,422$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.241,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Lightning54c2,858$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.4810554.3%57 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Golden Knights44c2,781$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.3895049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Golden Knights43c2,760$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.81,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Golden Knights46c2,599$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.6228842%121 W · 167 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Lightning57c2,555$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.289249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Lightning57c2,421$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.867149.3%35 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d33…6882backed Golden Knights1c2,396$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.931030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Golden Knights44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Lightning55c2,064$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.9469550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Lightning55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9997651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lightning55c1,892$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.051,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Golden Knights44c1,850$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.0414538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Lightning56c1,820$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Golden Knights3c1,534$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8129412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x106b…4e8bbacked Golden Knights46c1,523$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7007236.1%26 W · 46 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ed6…49a1backed Lightning55c1,400$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6302441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Lightning55c1,400$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63053337.5%200 W · 333 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50ff…2037backed Golden Knights44c1,400$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6162937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning57c1,247$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.012,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Golden Knights38c1,240$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.1682043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd547…8a9fbacked Golden Knights35c1,234$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4281471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Golden Knights45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50075251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Lightning58c1,036$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.112045%9 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda2…4375backed Lightning56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4403650%18 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Golden Knights43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Lightning55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45034845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Golden Knights46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4604746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Lightning56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44054349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Lightning56c901.1$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.515646.2%72 W · 84 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning56c899$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.5675155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Golden Knights23c850.98$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.420137.8%76 W · 125 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed Lightning56c833.41$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.71266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Golden Knights43c789.57$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.5140550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Golden Knights29c758.62$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22029319.8%58 W · 235 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Golden Knights38c687.56$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.731,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…c28cbacked Golden Knights45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…34a6backed Lightning56c666$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Golden Knights45c654$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.097839.7%31 W · 47 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Golden Knights46c646.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a1c…dd56backed Golden Knights44c632.91$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.48837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Golden Knights31c604.5$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1906431.3%20 W · 44 L-11.1wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-39%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Golden Knights46c570.5$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.4327044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Golden Knights45c552.59$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.1611051.8%57 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Golden Knights44c550$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2423740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Lightning56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22035349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Golden Knights45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22538046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Golden Knights45c480$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Golden Knights44c463.18$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8362249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Lightning54c462.94$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.9530152.5%158 W · 143 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Lightning59c450$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.558467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Lightning54c449.31$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.6812552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Lightning54c444$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.244725.5%12 W · 35 L-10.5wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-54.8%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Lightning55c443.62$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.631369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+43.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa21d…a769backed Lightning57c408.56$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.681258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lightning57c388$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.8457453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Lightning54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3753050.6%268 W · 262 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Lightning56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.141,09351.8%566 W · 527 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Lightning56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1423653.8%127 W · 109 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Golden Knights28c357$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9613435.8%48 W · 86 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6775…17efbacked Lightning57c348.28$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning53c330$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.11,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc648…259cbacked Lightning55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Lightning54c272.91$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.5420345.3%92 W · 111 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lightning69c264$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.441,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Golden Knights45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.538445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Golden Knights43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.574951.8%388 W · 361 L+18.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Golden Knights43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.518750.3%94 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e92…cd3dbacked Golden Knights43c231.52$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8921245.8%97 W · 115 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf36f…fb15backed Lightning56c228.57$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.573135.5%11 W · 20 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-34.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd9fe…ad85backed Golden Knights44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007454.1%40 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning53c226.51$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4657238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Golden Knights45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008052.5%42 W · 38 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Golden Knights51c220$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.