TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$275,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$320,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,895 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Texas Rangers54c37,037$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,037.0198149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Houston Astros48c33,333$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,999.8438148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Texas Rangers52c30,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,399.9977053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Houston Astros46c23,399$10,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,763.7123948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Texas Rangers54c21,641$11,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,015.154,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Texas Rangers53c18,868$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,867.9237953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Houston Astros46c15,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,9001,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros46c11,105$5,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,118.1811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Texas Rangers54c9,500$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,379.9917853.4%95 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros48c8,687$4,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.482,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Houston Astros47c7,600$3,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,571.961,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Houston Astros1c7,125$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers72c6,393$4,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.7710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros47c6,358$2,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.228,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Houston Astros0c5,600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.88762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Texas Rangers53c4,687$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,186.7224344.4%108 W · 135 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6715…5085backed Houston Astros47c4,605$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros46c3,938$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.381,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Houston Astros47c3,830$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80028944.3%128 W · 161 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros46c3,261$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Texas Rangers52c3,194$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.7560451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Texas Rangers58c3,085$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.5321767.7%147 W · 70 L+36.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Texas Rangers48c2,935$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.4215650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros34c2,857$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.379,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros16c2,501$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.071,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers55c2,498$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.6212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Houston Astros45c2,078$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9359153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c0b…bfc2backed Houston Astros40c1,883$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.562544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc928…1cc9backed Houston Astros51c1,840$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros47c1,674$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.432,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers53c1,604$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.813,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Texas Rangers53c1,507$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.411,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Texas Rangers52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72044451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.992,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros46c1,147$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.943,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros48c1,118$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.282,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Texas Rangers52c1,005$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.473748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed Houston Astros47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4708557.6%49 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5205,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Texas Rangers53c999.99$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4702,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Houston Astros46c863.83$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd6…d9f7backed Houston Astros1c854.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Texas Rangers60c827.17$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.1734756.5%196 W · 151 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros47c760$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.21,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros52c738$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.764,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Texas Rangers80c680$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13647589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Houston Astros47c629.96$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2982,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Texas Rangers53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28285952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Houston Astros47c564$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0846749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b90…5fb9backed Texas Rangers51c540.96$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.22955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Houston Astros49c530.81$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.211,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros47c504.5$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.4455052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Houston Astros47c495.78$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.021,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Houston Astros47c426$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.221,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Houston Astros50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros49c390.49$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.426,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Texas Rangers49c390.09$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.99837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Houston Astros47c382.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18040449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Houston Astros47c351.06$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16550647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros42c341.74$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.614,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed Houston Astros47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15052947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Houston Astros47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15043247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Houston Astros48c302.3$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6679147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Texas Rangers52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14434648.6%168 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Texas Rangers54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13811550.4%58 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Houston Astros46c292$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3276752.3%401 W · 366 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Texas Rangers53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.024450%22 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dab…e5c0backed Houston Astros15c257.09$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.511228.6%32 W · 80 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f9b…a181backed Houston Astros47c255.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020543.9%90 W · 115 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked Houston Astros48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12051449.2%253 W · 261 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Houston Astros48c239$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.722,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Houston Astros7c231.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1933228.3%94 W · 238 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros31c230.27$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.51,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Houston Astros48c224$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5231949.5%158 W · 161 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Houston Astros47c223.4$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10567449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Houston Astros47c218.2$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8970735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a0a…75acbacked Houston Astros47c217.02$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10246546%214 W · 251 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Houston Astros47c215$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.051,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed Houston Astros47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015944.7%71 W · 88 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked Houston Astros48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014243%61 W · 81 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Texas Rangers60c205$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8250860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Houston Astros48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Houston Astros47c190$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.334149.3%168 W · 173 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Houston Astros53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032166.4%213 W · 108 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc89b…14ebbacked Texas Rangers54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.193066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Houston Astros47c184.94$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9226751.7%138 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ae…2103backed Texas Rangers54c182.48$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.943050%15 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Houston Astros47c182$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5440648.5%197 W · 209 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers64c181.17$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.028,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Houston Astros47c160$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.21,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Houston Astros47c157$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7961250.5%309 W · 303 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Houston Astros48c152.37$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.142,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Houston Astros50c151.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.131,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd490…8d59backed Houston Astros47c140.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6628944.3%128 W · 161 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers67c140$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.474,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2201…b675backed Houston Astros47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6024544.1%108 W · 137 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Houston Astros46c124.1$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.099846.9%46 W · 52 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Texas Rangers50c120.58$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7782741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.42,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.