WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 166.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38aab2ad24805b1b0fb2aa20cafe43bd5469da4051d967d9878a45731a1150c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 2,379$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.97 | 1,803 | 51.8%934 W · 869 L | +56.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 1,346$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.62 | 399 | 50.4%201 W · 198 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…4a17backed Over | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.04 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 654$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.38 | 414 | 51%211 W · 203 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 55c | 538.35$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.35 | 292 | 58.6%171 W · 121 L | +20.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 16c | 530.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 404 | 40.6%164 W · 240 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 55c | 413.26$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.97 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 45c | 379$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 301 | 54.8%165 W · 136 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 28c | 153.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 145 | 55.2%80 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 871 | 48.2%420 W · 451 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 83.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 944 | 48.3%456 W · 488 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0378…1755backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…ac3dbacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 39c | 63.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 41c | 59.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 45c | 57.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 55c | 53.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 632 | 46.8%296 W · 336 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 56c | 33.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 670 | 51.5%345 W · 325 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 46c | 28.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 52c | 24.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 347 | 48.4%168 W · 179 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 47c | 24.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Under | 48c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 351 | 18.5%65 W · 286 L | -49.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 376 | 53.7%202 W · 174 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 166.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 164.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 165.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 169.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-13.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.