College Football · resolved market
Duke vs. California
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x392ca792952868de2a187845da375a52699d67fff1b460bc6345336a2417251b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Duke, California
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $318,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $318,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked California | 32c | 124,959$39,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,972.98 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Duke | 71c | 51,506$36,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,127.32 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Duke | 61c | 45,553$27,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,568.09 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked California | 69c | 21,286$14,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,790.33 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed California | 15c | 18,000$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,754 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…3cbebacked Duke | 58c | 17,698$10,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,433.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…1e4abacked Duke | 58c | 17,156$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,155.9 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked California | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.99 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed California | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Duke | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Duke | 32c | 4,106$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,798.93 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked California | 42c | 3,707$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.94 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed California | 41c | 3,657$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.25 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed California | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Duke | 55c | 2,191$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.32 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Duke | 54c | 2,070$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.97 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed California | 42c | 1,905$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…849ebacked Duke | 60c | 1,665$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Duke | 31c | 1,597$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.78 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…037abacked California | 32c | 1,587$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked California | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked California | 4c | 1,393$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Duke | 37c | 1,213$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.15 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked California | 42c | 1,168$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.55 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed California | 63c | 1,151$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.15 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed California | 14c | 1,085$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Duke | 60c | 1,065$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Duke | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Duke | 62c | 967.88$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.88 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked California | 41c | 822.99$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.43 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…252ebacked Duke | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…1db7backed California | 42c | 800$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California | 40c | 773$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.12 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571b…34cfbacked California | 17c | 740.28$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Duke | 50c | 731.99$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Duke | 62c | 657.71$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.66 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked California | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked California | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Duke | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed California | 15c | 491.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ce…d06dbacked Duke | 36c | 440.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…c5a6backed California | 39c | 425.24$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Duke | 63c | 402.34$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Duke | 62c | 400$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed California | 60c | 350$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked California | 30c | 302.27$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked California | 41c | 300.86$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed California | 38c | 299.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked California | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed California | 41c | 295.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Duke | 57c | 268.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd4…dfaebacked Duke | 35c | 264.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.27 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed California | 40c | 249.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked California | 41c | 248.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Duke | 58c | 243.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed California | 13c | 230$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 86 | 29.1%25 W · 61 L | +15.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +361.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked California | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c83…0f34backed California | 44c | 204.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dc…5ba6backed California | 54c | 201.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed California | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Duke | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked California | 43c | 174.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Duke | 79c | 173$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Duke | 59c | 169.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed California | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Duke | 76c | 152.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed California | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Duke | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Duke | 28c | 138.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Duke | 64c | 125.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Duke | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…bf1ebacked Duke | 59c | 112.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Duke | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed California | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…e05dbacked California | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed California | 38c | 95.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed California | 14c | 86.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Duke | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked California | 41c | 79.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed California | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d1debacked Duke | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…ed8dbacked Duke | 59c | 68.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…59e7backed Duke | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186f…8c40backed California | 69c | 57.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Duke | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Duke | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Duke | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…4992backed California | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Duke | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Duke | 49c | 40.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…6bb0backed Duke | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…4937backed Duke | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Duke | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Duke | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Duke | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Duke | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed California | 40c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef68…b9f4backed California | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2a…663bbacked Duke | 60c | 21.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…309ebacked Duke | 65c | 15.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke vs. Californiathis page
- Blue Devils vs. Golden: O/U 55.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.