TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Duke vs. California

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dukeof Duke, California
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$318,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$349,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $318,829 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked California32c124,959$39,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,972.9868440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Duke71c51,506$36,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,127.328149.4%40 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Duke61c45,553$27,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,568.0940541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked California69c21,286$14,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,790.332948.3%14 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x98b1…d855backed California15c18,000$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,754450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea18…3cbebacked Duke58c17,698$10,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,433.13944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Duke58c17,156$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,155.92955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked California40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.998331.3%26 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed California42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.992737%10 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Duke60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0009843.9%43 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Duke32c4,106$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,798.9320039.5%79 W · 121 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked California42c3,707$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.9481847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed California41c3,657$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.256855.9%38 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed California42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05019120.9%40 W · 151 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Duke55c2,191$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.3229055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Duke54c2,070$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.9755350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed California42c1,905$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80021348.8%104 W · 109 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Duke60c1,665$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Duke31c1,597$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.789635.4%34 W · 62 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8d…037abacked California32c1,587$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked California41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6156465.6%42 W · 22 L+14.8wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+58.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked California4c1,393$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.941360%0 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Duke37c1,213$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.156251.6%32 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked California42c1,168$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.5540549.4%200 W · 205 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed California63c1,151$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.1586243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24db…1332backed California14c1,085$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.636023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Duke60c1,065$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4264045%18 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Duke59c1,017$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.9516839.9%67 W · 101 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Duke62c967.88$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.882937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked California41c822.99$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.4349443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ff…252ebacked Duke60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c7…1db7backed California42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed California40c773$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.1240244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x571b…34cfbacked California17c740.28$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked Duke50c731.99$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.562339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Duke62c657.71$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.6685947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked California16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017946.9%84 W · 95 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedae…584fbacked California41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2465856.9%33 W · 25 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+36.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Duke59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2052166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+56.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed California15c491.78$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72806.3%5 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ce…d06dbacked Duke36c440.53$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.53757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddfe…c5a6backed California39c425.24$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.091827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed Duke63c402.34$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.87742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Duke62c400$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15310848.1%52 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed California60c350$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.511142.3%47 W · 64 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked California30c302.27$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.686233.9%21 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked California41c300.86$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3550358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe797…2b36backed California38c299.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked California40c299.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12042244.5%188 W · 234 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed California41c295.04$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9723751.1%121 W · 116 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Duke57c268.57$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.483953.8%21 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd4…dfaebacked Duke35c264.5$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.271656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ca…c7f5backed California40c249.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.951050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked California41c248.05$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.717954.2%97 W · 82 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Duke58c243.1$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.14928.6%14 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed California13c230$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.98629.1%25 W · 61 L+15.2wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+361.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0bce…558cbacked California46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c83…0f34backed California44c204.51$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90dc…5ba6backed California54c201.14$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.622630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed California38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7614254.9%78 W · 64 L+12.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Duke56c200$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8914055%77 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked California43c174.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7518338.8%71 W · 112 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Duke79c173$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5157144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…a572backed Duke59c169.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.087060%42 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc22…ee03backed California65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Duke76c152.29$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.096170.5%43 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed California41c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.547331.5%149 W · 324 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked Duke57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.514355.2%79 W · 64 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x781e…2484backed Duke28c138.45$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.32532%8 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+70.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9925…e33ebacked Duke64c125.95$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.854641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a03…47c1backed Duke60c125$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4241…bf1ebacked Duke59c112.47$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Duke68c102.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.944641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed California42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4228032.9%92 W · 188 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2493…e05dbacked California12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed California38c95.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7daf…f1b3backed California14c86.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.092259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1918…9568backed Duke59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.751560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked California41c79.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.522030.5%67 W · 153 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2325…3256backed California40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe065…d1debacked Duke58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.973852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x307f…ed8dbacked Duke59c68.76$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb226…59e7backed Duke45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x186f…8c40backed California69c57.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-54.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Duke25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.514945.6%68 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff94…c347backed Duke37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf135…eb06backed Duke59c49.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.151127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c2…4992backed California43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Duke58c43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.062347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Duke49c40.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.442548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa664…6bb0backed Duke49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…4937backed Duke58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Duke59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.97234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Duke60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.338942.7%38 W · 51 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02f7…b17abacked Duke60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.338845.5%40 W · 48 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a45…1405backed Duke63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.754052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f01…4ca2backed California40c29.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.992564%16 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef68…b9f4backed California67c23.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2a…663bbacked Duke60c21.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf0…309ebacked Duke65c15.72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.