TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: David Goffin vs Emilio Nava

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Emilio Navaof David Goffin, Emilio Nava
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$412,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$444,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $412,869 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Emilio Nava72c11,544$8,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e8…c5e8backed David Goffin18c9,787$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed David Goffin22c9,684$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.937040%28 W · 42 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed David Goffin19c6,665$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.398,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed David Goffin41c5,005$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.157939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed David Goffin23c4,888$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.834,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Emilio Nava71c4,830$3,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.432,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Emilio Nava73c4,746$3,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.454,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Emilio Nava67c4,293$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.291,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed David Goffin41c2,842$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.6437854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Emilio Nava59c2,722$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.8311552.2%60 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Emilio Nava76c2,489$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.047,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Emilio Nava60c2,372$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.8910954.1%59 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed David Goffin13c2,365$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.8430225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed David Goffin25c2,163$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.71,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Emilio Nava69c2,150$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.4711053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed David Goffin6c2,143$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.659737.9%77 W · 896 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed David Goffin24c2,019$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.9828933.2%96 W · 193 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed David Goffin37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9872452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed David Goffin18c1,912$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.462,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Emilio Nava75c1,846$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.561,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked David Goffin38c1,807$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.752,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Emilio Nava70c1,738$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.823,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Emilio Nava63c1,564$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.2860053.8%323 W · 277 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Emilio Nava65c1,519$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.0752557%299 W · 226 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Emilio Nava72c1,482$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.132,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Emilio Nava75c1,481$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.9785348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Emilio Nava75c1,480$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.971,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Emilio Nava75c1,474$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.3448453.7%260 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed David Goffin27c1,462$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.3223758.6%139 W · 98 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed David Goffin39c1,414$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.411,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e1…ecdbbacked David Goffin17c1,331$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.6248935.8%175 W · 314 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Emilio Nava79c1,268$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.5519153.4%102 W · 89 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea81…4f4bbacked David Goffin15c1,247$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed David Goffin38c1,208$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.581,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked David Goffin19c1,168$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.118459.5%50 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed David Goffin30c1,091$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.5423444.9%105 W · 129 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked David Goffin29c1,033$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.386,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed David Goffin18c1,032$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2642743.8%187 W · 240 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74c0…62fabacked David Goffin43c1,025$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.427142.3%30 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Emilio Nava69c995.62$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.641,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked David Goffin1c967.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5548637.7%183 W · 303 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked David Goffin30c956.51$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.7910860.2%65 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked David Goffin30c950.24$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.217656.3%99 W · 77 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…ee5abacked David Goffin10c923.06$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6314822.3%33 W · 115 L-14.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed David Goffin50c891.83$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.891,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Emilio Nava77c865.23$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.9230056.7%170 W · 130 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed David Goffin36c855.82$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.161924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Emilio Nava68c841.01$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.1480153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed David Goffin41c827.38$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.219054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x280e…2779backed David Goffin4c818.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.294742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5444…bbdabacked David Goffin12c789.33$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7233149.2%163 W · 168 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cac…e0e9backed David Goffin6c786.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.182213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9953…270fbacked David Goffin12c781.44$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.772254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e8…8435backed David Goffin21c763.99$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.154365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae6f…6c9bbacked David Goffin14c760.52$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.461315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-79.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcf4…66bbbacked Emilio Nava68c688.56$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.783243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8594…3733backed Emilio Nava58c680.08$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.5112756.7%72 W · 55 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x555c…319ebacked Emilio Nava64c674.17$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.79931.3%31 W · 68 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x896d…cd2cbacked Emilio Nava75c669.8$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4517357.8%100 W · 73 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed David Goffin31c658.68$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.7395846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed David Goffin37c600$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked David Goffin42c596.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6610729%31 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked David Goffin20c585.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.411958.8%70 W · 49 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Emilio Nava73c575.96$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7266139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed David Goffin54c569.77$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.3521655.6%120 W · 96 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Emilio Nava64c562.58$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.481,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked David Goffin20c554.73$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9535436.4%129 W · 225 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed David Goffin30c543.44$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.519462.8%59 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Emilio Nava75c540.78$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.312,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5f…6cecbacked David Goffin25c509.68$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6127749.8%138 W · 139 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb75e…5130backed David Goffin44c502.65$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.135343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed Emilio Nava51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24515444.2%68 W · 86 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Emilio Nava63c499.61$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.091,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed David Goffin38c495.84$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.421,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa991…62c7backed Emilio Nava61c474$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.864146.3%19 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3cb…b396backed David Goffin38c450.63$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.351070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Emilio Nava73c440.78$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.896,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69dd…1964backed Emilio Nava68c432.63$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3911462.3%71 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed David Goffin37c414.58$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.853,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed David Goffin48c405.76$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee4c…8572backed David Goffin15c380.43$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1623429.1%68 W · 166 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked David Goffin42c344.94$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7828726.8%77 W · 210 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Emilio Nava70c343.41$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.712,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f11…4529backed Emilio Nava43c341.4$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.62128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Emilio Nava58c335.32$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.331,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e5…008cbacked Emilio Nava71c315.21$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Emilio Nava62c314.35$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8968350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Emilio Nava63c310.77$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2184963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Emilio Nava71c310.43$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9643558.6%255 W · 180 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ff…8d60backed David Goffin38c310.33$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.963517.1%6 W · 29 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-68%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd1f4…92b2backed Emilio Nava65c300.93$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.133956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked David Goffin37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11129230.5%89 W · 203 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Emilio Nava72c296.54$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.744,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Emilio Nava64c296$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5611659.5%69 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed David Goffin38c294.73$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.353420.6%7 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-59.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9386…b2b7backed Emilio Nava79c291.88$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.32568%17 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0a…bd3bbacked Emilio Nava67c290.66$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.563278.1%25 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked David Goffin19c289.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3454634.4%188 W · 358 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked David Goffin19c285.42$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.233560%21 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.