Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a2ca6031a71d0d2b752ade08983cce8b9410979f44b1f56fd6db5d967cde7e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 10c | 42,847$4,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,175.67 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 5c | 16,661$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.06 | 230 | 24.8%57 W · 173 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 5c | 12,092$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.09 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9994…03ddbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 4.3%5 W · 110 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 6c | 6,648$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.2 | 197 | 4.1%8 W · 189 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 17c | 5,150$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.4 | 714 | 16.7%119 W · 595 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 14c | 4,913$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.06 | 167 | 26.9%45 W · 122 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 4,892$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.98 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 9c | 4,433$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.91 | 181 | 20.4%37 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 3,950$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.66 | 467 | 11.3%53 W · 414 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,625$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.76 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…f79fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…f1d1backed Yes | 14c | 2,986$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.97 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 5c | 2,959$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 335 | 24.5%82 W · 253 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…0b62backed Yes | 6c | 2,897$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 11c | 2,447$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.4 | 556 | 22.5%125 W · 431 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,364$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.94 | 659 | 21.5%142 W · 517 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,317$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d9…80a4backed Yes | 5c | 2,071$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 10c | 2,060$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.65 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 15c | 2,055$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 3c | 2,022$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 164 | 28%46 W · 118 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,990$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,939$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,880$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 1,219 | 8.7%106 W · 1,113 L | +32.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 6c | 1,866$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 135 | 24.4%33 W · 102 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,840$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 577 | 5.5%32 W · 545 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,821$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 434 | 10.6%46 W · 388 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,805$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 19c | 1,788$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.08 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 14c | 1,750$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.79 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 6c | 1,732$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 911 | 10.2%93 W · 818 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 1,724$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 857 | 16.5%141 W · 716 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 16c | 1,700$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.72 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 80c | 1,622$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.08 | 127 | 28.3%36 W · 91 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 1,590$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 903 | 17.1%154 W · 749 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…b23ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,389$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 2c | 1,366$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 21.2%100 W · 371 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 1,333$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,329$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 9c | 1,307$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.04 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,298$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 232 | 22%51 W · 181 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 7c | 1,267$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,264$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 191 | 18.3%35 W · 156 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,236$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.72 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,233$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…0743backed Yes | 1c | 1,176$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,150$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.67 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,130$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 147 | 22.4%33 W · 114 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.02 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 1,099$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 898 | 18.8%169 W · 729 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6d…2294backed Yes | 6c | 1,075$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,046$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 98 | 14.3%14 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 1,013$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 9c | 1,005$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 251 | 22.3%56 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.9 | 184 | 16.3%30 W · 154 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 813 | 11.1%90 W · 723 L | +29.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 7c | 967.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 207 | 14%29 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 962.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 239 | 18%43 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 6c | 909$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 204 | 24.5%50 W · 154 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 12c | 906.88$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 269 | 13.8%37 W · 232 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed Yes | 9c | 863.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +136%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 10c | 850$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes | 14c | 841.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 4c | 812.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 299 | 12.7%38 W · 261 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 4c | 680.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 574 | 8.2%47 W · 527 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29c…d8b9backed Yes | 5c | 678.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed Yes | 4c | 657.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 152 | 5.3%8 W · 144 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +225.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 3c | 650$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 307 | 16.9%52 W · 255 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 8c | 636.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 9c | 611.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 18c | 589$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 11c | 559.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…6e3cbacked Yes | 11c | 557.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes | 14c | 552.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 3c | 534.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes | 3c | 514.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 124 | 20.2%25 W · 99 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 12c | 512.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…a0eebacked Yes | 4c | 507.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 6c | 507.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 4c | 502.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 108 | 7.4%8 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 499$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 337 | 31.2%105 W · 232 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 3c | 498.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 304 | 27%82 W · 222 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…8910backed Yes | 12c | 487.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 445.85$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 556 | 75.2%418 W · 138 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fae…ef5fbacked Yes | 5c | 431.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 423.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,809 | 7.4%133 W · 1,676 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes | 9c | 420.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked Yes | 10c | 403.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 155 | 11%17 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes | 11c | 403.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…b432backed Yes | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec4…7bacbacked Yes | 8c | 394.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 15c | 394.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 3c | 364.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 362$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 189 | 4.2%8 W · 181 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed Yes | 14c | 352.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 118 | 29.7%35 W · 83 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 15c | 332.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 10c | 322.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.