Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeb729bc563b4d5e176137a460599b10aa6531f40efb14a14f7dff4673a11252

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $310,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $279,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,889 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	0c	36,092$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.12	642	39.1%251 W · 391 L	+48.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	44c	27,102$11,940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,162.14	227	15%34 W · 193 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	32c	13,054$4,214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,840.58	230	24.8%57 W · 173 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	3c	6,165$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.99	286	23.4%67 W · 219 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	21c	5,593$1,149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,444.65	556	22.5%125 W · 431 L	-19.8wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	4c	3,860$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.61	191	3.7%7 W · 184 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7914…8ba1backed Yes	55c	3,635$1,982 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,653.36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	3,368$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,296.22	696	15.7%109 W · 587 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	39c	3,059$1,206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,853.61	549	23%126 W · 423 L	+16.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	19c	2,883$535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,347.4	2,589	13.1%340 W · 2,249 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	1c	2,517$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,494	191	18.3%35 W · 156 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	4c	2,509$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.41	176	40.3%71 W · 105 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	69c	2,505$1,726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$779	714	16.7%119 W · 595 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	4c	2,400$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,299.01	434	10.6%46 W · 388 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24b9…b040backed No	17c	2,125$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	29c	2,069$590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,479.02	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	20cpaid	+71.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No	22c	1,874$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.65	903	17.1%154 W · 749 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	25c	1,850$459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,390.92	340	21.5%73 W · 267 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked No	4c	1,740$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.49	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	20c	1,664$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,327.3	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	23c	1,655$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,279.2	136	26.5%36 W · 100 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5734…06babacked Yes	58c	1,426$831 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$595.26	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed No	3c	1,402$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.01	582	8.1%47 W · 535 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed No	43c	1,384$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.53	193	39.4%76 W · 117 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	27c	1,300$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$952.72	589	22.1%130 W · 459 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	19c	1,272$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,027.38	342	21.9%75 W · 267 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No	12c	1,238$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	15c	1,204$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,028.25	147	22.4%33 W · 114 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	51c	1,102$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.45	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No	24c	1,098$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.16	593	20.9%124 W · 469 L	+9.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	9c	1,085$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$984.66	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	16c	1,061$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$895.55	259	13.5%35 W · 224 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	41c	1,056$429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$626.14	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	23c	1,050$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$805.29	419	22.9%96 W · 323 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	70c	1,014$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.26	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	-4.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	57c	1,012$576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.86	153	37.3%57 W · 96 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	16c	1,000$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$843.64	184	16.3%30 W · 154 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x936f…f16dbacked Yes	8c	997.23$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$913.23	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	18c	973.21$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$799.92	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No	30c	923.4$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.34	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	26c	902.45$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.61	898	18.8%169 W · 729 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes	17c	895.62$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$742.99	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	12c	820.32$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	407	48.4%197 W · 210 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	45c	816.45$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.22	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes	25c	790.51$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590.51	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	34c	778.53$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.52	142	31.7%45 W · 97 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	18c	767.9$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$627.72	125	20.8%26 W · 99 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed Yes	25c	750$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$561.75	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes	23c	718.71$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$552.04	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes	15c	718.44$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$609.06	129	51.9%67 W · 62 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	53c	714.93$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.51	332	16.9%56 W · 276 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	40c	704.73$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.74	152	27.6%42 W · 110 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No	72c	698.64$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.03	56	66.1%37 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes	26c	696.67$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.33	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-3.9wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb19…e061backed Yes	69c	690.5$475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.54	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c4…cf8dbacked Yes	43c	675.04$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-22%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No	42c	671.29$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.2	420	30.7%129 W · 291 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	33c	653.73$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.38	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No	37c	650.79$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.66	157	48.4%76 W · 81 L	+15.5wins	+0.10per pick	39cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No	22c	630.28$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.87	128	37.5%48 W · 80 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed No	19c	621.12$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.22	228	28.1%64 W · 164 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	50c	617$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.83	232	60.3%140 W · 92 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c44…8f73backed Yes	25c	600$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450.88	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x271e…b975backed No	4c	576.37$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-2.9wins	-0.13per pick	21cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	27c	558.63$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$409.25	1,072	13.6%146 W · 926 L	+38.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	73c	550.26$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.1	206	31.1%64 W · 142 L	+14.5wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x138d…b23ebacked No	5c	545.45$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.27	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3899…452ebacked Yes	74c	539.99$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	26c	534.38$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.3	185	24.9%46 W · 139 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No	34c	528.37$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.14	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed No	12c	514.17$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.87	304	27%82 W · 222 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	18c	508.59$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.09	299	12.7%38 W · 261 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed No	5c	499.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	165	12.7%21 W · 144 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	12c	488.98$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.64	213	48.4%103 W · 110 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	12c	484.31$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.31	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	69c	476.02$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.61	556	75.2%418 W · 138 L	+35.4wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	7c	473.91$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.4	167	6%10 W · 157 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes	19c	473.5$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$385.1	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-33%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	30c	467.91$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.56	1,061	10.7%113 W · 948 L	-34.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6d…2294backed Yes	15c	460.08$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393.08	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	13c	458.29$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$397.02	114	41.2%47 W · 67 L	+11.0wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	41c	455$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.24	509	19.3%98 W · 411 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	15c	454.77$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.45	207	14%29 W · 178 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	39c	440.2$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.4	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	73c	438.43$319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.43	837	14.9%125 W · 712 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	8c	434.51$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.52	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	13c	411$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356.86	1,219	8.7%106 W · 1,113 L	+32.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes	15c	408.76$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345.66	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	15c	404.57$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.57	155	11%17 W · 138 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	32c	400$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.4	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes	39c	397.78$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.2	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1050…43afbacked Yes	60c	393$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.13	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+68%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6660…c786backed Yes	73c	384.48$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	15c	383$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.56	742	15.2%113 W · 629 L	+12.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fee…d292backed No	6c	380$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.63	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d38…d4f1backed No	6c	380$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.63	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0431…1af9backed No	6c	380$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.63	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ed…223ebacked No	6c	380$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.63	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9414…8947backed No	6c	380$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.63	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c78…6818backed No	6c	380$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.63	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event