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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,469

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,531 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes4c30,720$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.7222715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes1c24,619$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.51,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes2c20,576$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.9323024.8%57 W · 173 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes0c9,152$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7619118.3%35 W · 156 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c8,052$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.052411.7%4 W · 237 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+672.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,633$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.962,1883.9%85 W · 2,103 L+4.5wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes3c5,197$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9335016%56 W · 294 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes10c5,192$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.3155622.5%125 W · 431 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes4c5,039$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.456020%12 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c4,447$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.231,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c4,421$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.262,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes7c4,378$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.4769615.7%109 W · 587 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes0c4,216$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9391110.2%93 W · 818 L-3.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes10c4,007$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.0926011.2%29 W · 231 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c3,863$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.064638.2%38 W · 425 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes4c3,483$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8913626.5%36 W · 100 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c3,110$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281,2198.7%106 W · 1,113 L+32.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes2c2,626$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.83974.5%18 W · 379 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes2c2,572$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1118120.4%37 W · 144 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes3c2,500$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.845828.1%47 W · 535 L+0.8wins0.00per pick8cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes9c2,342$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6918431%57 W · 127 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes6c2,153$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.624314%6 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes10c2,000$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.987432.4%24 W · 50 L+7.5wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+60.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c1,996$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.565775.5%32 W · 545 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes5c1,922$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6690317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes7c1,694$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.543410.6%46 W · 388 L-0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes3c1,687$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.121,0968.2%90 W · 1,006 L+28.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes7c1,630$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3511441.2%47 W · 67 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes6c1,601$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016113%21 W · 140 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes7c1,500$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5434021.5%73 W · 267 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c44…8f73backed Yes7c1,444$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.65128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes2c1,419$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047121.2%100 W · 371 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes1c1,405$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125122.3%56 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes3c1,299$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.051757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes7c1,168$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6418618.3%34 W · 152 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes5c1,158$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8825913.5%35 W · 224 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes10c1,153$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7558922.1%130 W · 459 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes4c1,107$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4200%0 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes3c1,016$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328028.8%23 W · 57 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes12c1,012$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.118416.3%30 W · 154 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes3c1,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.68008.8%70 W · 730 L-0.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes10c999.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10313611%15 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes9c900$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.958937.1%33 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes3c869.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.781,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes6c858.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3426312.2%32 W · 231 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes7c850$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.241922.9%96 W · 323 L-0.8wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes7c793.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9511313.3%15 W · 98 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes3c704.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1829912.7%38 W · 261 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes2c691.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.955748.2%47 W · 527 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes3c665.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6316512.7%21 W · 144 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes11c643$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5412837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca2…6e06backed Yes4c630$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.141618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes2c617.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1314322.4%32 W · 111 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes5c580.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2923918%43 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes4c577.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61894.2%8 W · 181 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes11c532.9$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5912520.8%26 W · 99 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes8c515.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0117023.5%40 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.513414.2%19 W · 115 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes3c499.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.985315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes4c492.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.054219%8 W · 34 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes7c469.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1521522.8%49 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes10c405.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.46119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8559311.5%68 W · 525 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018418.5%34 W · 150 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes8c343.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2936618.9%69 W · 297 L-1.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe211…9fb8backed Yes7c334.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.411513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes12c324.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes6c316.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71676%10 W · 157 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid+55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…fba2backed Yes11c306.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe84b…ded7backed Yes8c304.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9480%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3821…bde6backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes10c290$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0450919.3%98 W · 411 L-1.4wins0.00per pick20cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9307…8910backed Yes9c277.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes7c260$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9812951.9%67 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.258811.4%10 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid+5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes9c221.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209820.4%20 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes9c201.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6447023.4%110 W · 360 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.177412.2%9 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes8c197.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1611816.1%19 W · 99 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5343…9808backed Yes9c188.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54434.1%15 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d16…58f5backed Yes11c185.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes11c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8511346.9%53 W · 60 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes12c129.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5210027%27 W · 73 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes9c127$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9140319.1%77 W · 326 L-57.7wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes11c110$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.977135.2%25 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes11c99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0931317.3%54 W · 259 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.