TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$298,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$182,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,984 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes18c38,332$7,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,040.2822715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes16c16,981$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.5623024.8%57 W · 173 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes9c7,345$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.7135016%56 W · 294 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes16c5,176$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.2971416.7%119 W · 595 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes1c5,118$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1826011.2%29 W · 231 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes4c4,288$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4891110.2%93 W · 818 L-3.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c4,187$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.132,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes26c4,037$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.9658922.1%130 W · 459 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No61c3,339$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.6415337.3%57 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes14c3,078$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.1216428%46 W · 118 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes5c3,036$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.841,2198.7%106 W · 1,113 L+32.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes26c2,980$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.285717.5%10 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes14c2,907$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.4718120.4%37 W · 144 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,549$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.092,1883.9%85 W · 2,103 L+4.5wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes20c2,506$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.7115227.6%42 W · 110 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes14c2,230$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.484619.6%9 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes26c2,179$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.78028.8%23 W · 57 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes18c2,160$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.561757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes15c2,123$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.8659320.9%124 W · 469 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes18c2,034$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.567038.6%27 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes7c2,013$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2643410.6%46 W · 388 L-0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes24c2,005$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.632330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+71.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes15c1,939$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.6889818.8%169 W · 729 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes11c1,936$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.933216.9%56 W · 276 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes14c1,896$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.1814722.4%33 W · 114 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes25c1,868$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.9434021.5%73 W · 267 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No77c1,864$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.642330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes21c1,854$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.134221.9%75 W · 267 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes19c1,745$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.1610225.5%26 W · 76 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes12c1,732$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004818.8%9 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes29c1,690$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.335745.6%26 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes18c1,686$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.3943019.3%83 W · 347 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes20c1,670$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.8314231.7%45 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes18c1,653$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.877432.4%24 W · 50 L+7.5wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+60.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes13c1,584$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3930427%82 W · 222 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes15c1,562$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.7133524.5%82 W · 253 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes16c1,529$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.4290317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes10c1,528$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6710730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes1c1,468$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.571974.1%8 W · 189 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+211.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes16c1,454$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.3617640.3%71 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c1,300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.453410.5%56 W · 478 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No74c1,290$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.4731643%136 W · 180 L+20.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No63c1,235$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.9516656%93 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes10c1,226$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.924314%6 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes21c1,189$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25025122.3%56 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes15c1,114$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.823222%51 W · 181 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes4c1,079$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407022.9%16 W · 54 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes20c1,052$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4725913.5%35 W · 224 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes23c1,001$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.517821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes22c1,000$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.1718416.3%30 W · 154 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019922.6%45 W · 154 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes22c999.74$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.6441922.9%96 W · 323 L-0.8wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes2c953.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5469615.7%109 W · 587 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes12c921.05$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10729912.7%38 W · 261 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes16c900$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.198937.1%33 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes12c881.66$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8226913.8%37 W · 232 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes7c877.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.761087.4%8 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+61.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes34c877.34$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.7212951.9%67 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes5c868.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022442.4%95 W · 129 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe122…0b62backed Yes12c861.5$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.91216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes9c843.04$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8620714%29 W · 178 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes5c832.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1428623.4%67 W · 219 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes15c791.25$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7612310.6%13 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+68.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes31c763.4$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.021315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6d…2294backed Yes8c761.41$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.672611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes22c752.62$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1685024%12 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes10c736.41$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9223918%43 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes12c733.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6413524.4%33 W · 102 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes3c709$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2623318.9%44 W · 189 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x138d…b23ebacked Yes3c701.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.44110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes30c665.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes13c640$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.51,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes6c605.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.582884.9%14 W · 274 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-90.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes6c600$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7810542.9%45 W · 60 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes18c595.14$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9565921.5%142 W · 517 L+2.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes22c574.98$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9312223%28 W · 94 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes20c568.96$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6213824.6%34 W · 104 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No68c555$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17755675.2%418 W · 138 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes11c550$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4512420.2%25 W · 99 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes29c520.4$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516518.5%12 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a35…db99backed Yes30c514.1$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.882222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028216.3%46 W · 236 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c44…8f73backed Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.67832.1%25 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes3c493.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.985775.5%32 W · 545 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes16c488.45$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6611441.2%47 W · 67 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes43c485.24$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.792321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes22c467.82$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9154923%126 W · 423 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes17c450$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.515327.5%42 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes18c444.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.161,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe211…9fb8backed Yes25c428.08$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.11513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes16c424$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1485716.5%141 W · 716 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes4c420.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.031,0968.2%90 W · 1,006 L+28.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…8910backed Yes24c414.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes16c410.08$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes10c409.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6417023.5%40 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes23c406.09$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9547121%99 W · 372 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes16c405$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206731.3%21 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed Yes4c400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.212231.1%38 W · 84 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.