Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3de39f25c6c7f15ead26ef1dbc4c62c0d0c69861be5cccda47d98df64baf7961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 18c | 38,332$7,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,040.28 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 16c | 16,981$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.56 | 230 | 24.8%57 W · 173 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 9c | 7,345$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.71 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 16c | 5,176$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.29 | 714 | 16.7%119 W · 595 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 1c | 5,118$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 260 | 11.2%29 W · 231 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 4c | 4,288$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.48 | 911 | 10.2%93 W · 818 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 4,187$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.13 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 26c | 4,037$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.96 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 61c | 3,339$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.64 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 14c | 3,078$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.12 | 164 | 28%46 W · 118 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 3,036$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 1,219 | 8.7%106 W · 1,113 L | +32.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,980$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.28 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 14c | 2,907$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.47 | 181 | 20.4%37 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,549$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 20c | 2,506$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.71 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 14c | 2,230$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.48 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 26c | 2,179$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.7 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,160$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.56 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 2,123$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.86 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,034$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.56 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 7c | 2,013$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 434 | 10.6%46 W · 388 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d9…80a4backed Yes | 24c | 2,005$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 15c | 1,939$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.68 | 898 | 18.8%169 W · 729 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 11c | 1,936$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.9 | 332 | 16.9%56 W · 276 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,896$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.18 | 147 | 22.4%33 W · 114 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 25c | 1,868$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.94 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 77c | 1,864$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.64 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 21c | 1,854$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.1 | 342 | 21.9%75 W · 267 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 19c | 1,745$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,732$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 29c | 1,690$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.33 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,686$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.39 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 20c | 1,670$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.83 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…daf3backed Yes | 18c | 1,653$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +7.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 13c | 1,584$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.39 | 304 | 27%82 W · 222 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 15c | 1,562$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.71 | 335 | 24.5%82 W · 253 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 16c | 1,529$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 903 | 17.1%154 W · 749 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,528$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 1c | 1,468$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 197 | 4.1%8 W · 189 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 16c | 1,454$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.36 | 176 | 40.3%71 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 74c | 1,290$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.47 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 63c | 1,235$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.95 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,226$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 21c | 1,189$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 251 | 22.3%56 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,114$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 232 | 22%51 W · 181 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 4c | 1,079$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 20c | 1,052$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.47 | 259 | 13.5%35 W · 224 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…0d51backed Yes | 23c | 1,001$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.51 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.17 | 184 | 16.3%30 W · 154 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 199 | 22.6%45 W · 154 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 22c | 999.74$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 953.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 696 | 15.7%109 W · 587 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 12c | 921.05$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 299 | 12.7%38 W · 261 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 16c | 900$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 12c | 881.66$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 269 | 13.8%37 W · 232 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 7c | 877.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 108 | 7.4%8 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 34c | 877.34$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.72 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 5c | 868.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 42.4%95 W · 129 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…0b62backed Yes | 12c | 861.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 9c | 843.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 207 | 14%29 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 5c | 832.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 286 | 23.4%67 W · 219 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 15c | 791.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bda…f2bbbacked Yes | 31c | 763.4$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.02 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6d…2294backed Yes | 8c | 761.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 22c | 752.62$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 736.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 239 | 18%43 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 12c | 733.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 135 | 24.4%33 W · 102 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 3c | 709$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 233 | 18.9%44 W · 189 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…b23ebacked Yes | 3c | 701.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 30c | 665.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 13c | 640$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 6c | 605.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 288 | 4.9%14 W · 274 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 18c | 595.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 659 | 21.5%142 W · 517 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 22c | 574.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes | 20c | 568.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 68c | 555$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 556 | 75.2%418 W · 138 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes | 11c | 550$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 124 | 20.2%25 W · 99 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 29c | 520.4$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…db99backed Yes | 30c | 514.1$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 282 | 16.3%46 W · 236 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…8f73backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 3c | 493.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 577 | 5.5%32 W · 545 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed Yes | 16c | 488.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes | 43c | 485.24$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.79 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 467.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 549 | 23%126 W · 423 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 17c | 450$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 18c | 444.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…9fb8backed Yes | 25c | 428.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 16c | 424$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 857 | 16.5%141 W · 716 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 420.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,096 | 8.2%90 W · 1,006 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…8910backed Yes | 24c | 414.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes | 16c | 410.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 10c | 409.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 23c | 406.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 471 | 21%99 W · 372 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 16c | 405$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.