Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14326fa0288d553cfce0f22c62c13afd104fb62ed751b12164dae9688c648892
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $354,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 15c | 41,698$6,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,311.59 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 0c | 24,373$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 642 | 39.1%251 W · 391 L | +48.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 19c | 14,252$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.51 | 230 | 24.8%57 W · 173 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 526 | 9.9%52 W · 474 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 18c | 10,788$1,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.53 | 556 | 22.5%125 W · 431 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,058$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 286 | 23.4%67 W · 219 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 14c | 6,183$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.09 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 3c | 5,769$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.94 | 260 | 11.2%29 W · 231 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 6c | 5,392$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.69 | 696 | 15.7%109 W · 587 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 19c | 5,272$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.5 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 15c | 4,289$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.9 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 17c | 3,853$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.9 | 509 | 19.3%98 W · 411 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 1c | 3,180$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 593 | 11.5%68 W · 525 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 14c | 3,171$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.11 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 16c | 3,164$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.07 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 14c | 3,115$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.26 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 20c | 3,059$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.75 | 467 | 11.3%53 W · 414 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…8354backed Yes | 7c | 2,890$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.07 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 14c | 2,505$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.65 | 1,096 | 8.2%90 W · 1,006 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 13c | 2,500$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.75 | 582 | 8.1%47 W · 535 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,490$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 288 | 4.9%14 W · 274 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…8c91backed No | 80c | 2,443$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 8c | 2,345$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.71 | 434 | 10.6%46 W · 388 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 17c | 2,081$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.69 | 1,809 | 7.4%133 W · 1,676 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 17c | 2,029$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.91 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 14c | 2,007$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.83 | 259 | 13.5%35 W · 224 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 542 | 17.2%93 W · 449 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…beacbacked Yes | 2c | 1,978$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 125 | 16.8%21 W · 104 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 18c | 1,975$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.59 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,882$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.31 | 1,219 | 8.7%106 W · 1,113 L | +32.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 21c | 1,857$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.52 | 549 | 23%126 W · 423 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 16c | 1,821$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.69 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 9c | 1,770$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.46 | 911 | 10.2%93 W · 818 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 6c | 1,759$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 12c | 1,703$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.43 | 903 | 17.1%154 W · 749 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 8c | 1,677$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 269 | 13.8%37 W · 232 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,673$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,501$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 11c | 1,498$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.74 | 445 | 19.3%86 W · 359 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 11c | 1,422$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,391$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 16c | 1,366$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 221 | 22.2%49 W · 172 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 12c | 1,354$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.66 | 113 | 13.3%15 W · 98 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,332$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 428 | 20.8%89 W · 339 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…5925backed Yes | 17c | 1,331$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.89 | 125 | 20.8%26 W · 99 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed Yes | 13c | 1,328$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.44 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 1,327$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 12c | 1,324$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 420 | 30.7%129 W · 291 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,317$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c4…cf8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,243$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes | 18c | 1,154$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.15 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 16c | 1,149$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…e597backed Yes | 6c | 1,133$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 164 | 28.7%47 W · 117 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,050$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.41 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes | 19c | 1,049$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 1,027$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.16 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…a357backed Yes | 16c | 966.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 16c | 957.74$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.23 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 20c | 926$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 21c | 908.24$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.79 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 17c | 907$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.42 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 9c | 900$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 16c | 892.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 184 | 16.3%30 W · 154 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 12c | 879.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 898 | 18.8%169 W · 729 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 871.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes | 4c | 870$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 93 | 19.4%18 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 20c | 870$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.93 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…f2a7backed Yes | 11c | 830.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 11c | 810.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 251 | 22.3%56 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes | 5c | 801.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 6c | 794.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 284 | 17.3%49 W · 235 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 16c | 782.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.92 | 579 | 29.7%172 W · 407 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes | 3c | 751.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes | 28c | 726.42$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 12c | 700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 332 | 16.9%56 W · 276 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 22c | 685.61$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 164 | 28%46 W · 118 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 17c | 636.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 5c | 606.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…f16dbacked Yes | 6c | 601.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 20c | 600.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 471 | 21.2%100 W · 371 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6d…2294backed Yes | 11c | 599.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 11c | 586.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 207 | 14%29 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 4c | 583.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 574 | 8.2%47 W · 527 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 12c | 570$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 800 | 8.8%70 W · 730 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…e2afbacked No | 78c | 565.39$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.07 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 15c | 561.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 175 | 26.3%46 W · 129 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 10c | 560.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 299 | 12.7%38 W · 261 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…b23ebacked Yes | 5c | 556.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 20c | 541.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9298…de2cbacked Yes | 21c | 521.43$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 10c | 508.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed No | 79c | 505.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…23cabacked Yes | 6c | 500.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 15c | 484.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 147 | 22.4%33 W · 114 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 20c | 481.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 470 | 23.4%110 W · 360 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.