TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$354,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,624 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes15c41,698$6,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,311.5922715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes0c24,373$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0164239.1%251 W · 391 L+48.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes19c14,252$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.5123024.8%57 W · 173 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes0c11,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235269.9%52 W · 474 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes18c10,788$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.5355622.5%125 W · 431 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes1c9,058$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6228623.4%67 W · 219 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes14c6,183$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.0913626.5%36 W · 100 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes3c5,769$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9426011.2%29 W · 231 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes6c5,392$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.6969615.7%109 W · 587 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes19c5,272$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.515337.3%57 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes15c4,289$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.91,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes17c3,853$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.950919.3%98 W · 411 L-1.4wins0.00per pick20cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes1c3,180$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5959311.5%68 W · 525 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes14c3,171$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.1158922.1%130 W · 459 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes16c3,164$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.0718431%57 W · 127 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes14c3,115$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.2612837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes20c3,059$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.7546711.3%53 W · 414 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes7c2,890$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.074511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes14c2,505$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.651,0968.2%90 W · 1,006 L+28.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes13c2,500$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.755828.1%47 W · 535 L+0.8wins0.00per pick8cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes3c2,490$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.352884.9%14 W · 274 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-90.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x408f…8c91backed No80c2,443$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.19757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes8c2,345$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.7143410.6%46 W · 388 L-0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes17c2,081$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.691,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes17c2,029$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.9118618.3%34 W · 152 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes14c2,007$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.8325913.5%35 W · 224 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes18c2,000$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35854217.2%93 W · 449 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-34.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x65fc…beacbacked Yes2c1,978$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3812516.8%21 W · 104 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes18c1,975$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.5915227.6%42 W · 110 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes9c1,882$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.311,2198.7%106 W · 1,113 L+32.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes21c1,857$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.5254923%126 W · 423 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes16c1,821$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6934021.5%73 W · 267 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes9c1,770$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.4691110.2%93 W · 818 L-3.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes6c1,759$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1553410.5%56 W · 478 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes12c1,703$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4390317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes8c1,677$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.726913.8%37 W · 232 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,673$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.972,1883.9%85 W · 2,103 L+4.5wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes12c1,501$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.135016%56 W · 294 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes11c1,498$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7444519.3%86 W · 359 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes11c1,422$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507635.5%27 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes15c1,391$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054818.8%9 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes16c1,366$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1822122.2%49 W · 172 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes12c1,354$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6611313.3%15 W · 98 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes3c1,332$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5142820.8%89 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes17c1,331$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8912520.8%26 W · 99 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes13c1,328$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4411441.2%47 W · 67 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes8c1,327$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.231,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes12c1,324$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1942030.7%129 W · 291 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes10c1,317$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8643019.3%83 W · 347 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8c4…cf8dbacked Yes18c1,243$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.85333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes18c1,154$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.154219%8 W · 34 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes16c1,149$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9612951.9%67 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d69…e597backed Yes6c1,133$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.071323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-58.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes2c1,100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.783729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes6c1,100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6616428.7%47 W · 117 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes17c1,050$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4141922.9%96 W · 323 L-0.8wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes19c1,049$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1983033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c1,027$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.162,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb36…a357backed Yes16c966.69$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes16c957.74$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.231757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5734…06babacked Yes20c926$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.872128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes21c908.24$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.797038.6%27 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes17c907$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.428937.1%33 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes9c900$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.114231.7%45 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes16c892.14$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.8718416.3%30 W · 154 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes12c879.75$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8489818.8%169 W · 729 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes12c871.83$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1359320.9%124 W · 469 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes4c870$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.529319.4%18 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes20c870$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.938423.8%20 W · 64 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1855…f2a7backed Yes11c830.48$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.391414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes11c810.96$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8725122.3%56 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes5c801.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.494314%6 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes6c794.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0628417.3%49 W · 235 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes16c782.77$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9257929.7%172 W · 407 L+2.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes3c751.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.336920.3%14 W · 55 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed Yes20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes28c726.42$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes12c700$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.633216.9%56 W · 276 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes22c685.61$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9716428%46 W · 118 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes17c636.26$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10913816.7%23 W · 115 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…c878backed Yes5c606.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.436918.8%13 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x936f…f16dbacked Yes6c601.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes20c600.27$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215024%12 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes3c600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.647121.2%100 W · 371 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6d…2294backed Yes11c599.29$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.352611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes11c586.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4220714%29 W · 178 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes4c583.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.355748.2%47 W · 527 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes12c570$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.28008.8%70 W · 730 L-0.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked No78c565.39$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.074740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes15c561.37$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7317526.3%46 W · 129 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes10c560.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5629912.7%38 W · 261 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x138d…b23ebacked Yes5c556.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.73110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes20c541.11$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.088028.8%23 W · 57 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9298…de2cbacked Yes21c521.43$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.01825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes10c508.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505717.5%10 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc1…0a06backed No79c505.09$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.093250%16 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes6c500.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.735315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x308a…eed3backed Yes6c499.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.27028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes15c484.94$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.214722.4%33 W · 114 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes20c481.39$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3947023.4%110 W · 360 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.