Premier League · resolved market
AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a946691ba68bbe6a759dc8e70511e810d3371f58d6a3e01237ae799e6f40b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 4,084$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,172.52 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 197 | 29.4%58 W · 139 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 23c | 3,315$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,561.62 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 1,399$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.28 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 14c | 1,388$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.57 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +125%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 1,195$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.82 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Under | 75c | 449.99$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked Under | 74c | 400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a87…0f4abacked Under | 79c | 352.14$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed Under | 55c | 333$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 23c | 305$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.85 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ee…953bbacked Under | 76c | 230.26$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca49…daddbacked Under | 70c | 212.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…613abacked Under | 61c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Under | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 67c | 148.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f5…5660backed Under | 72c | 139.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Over | 19c | 128.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…bbccbacked Under | 79c | 126.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Under | 76c | 90.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…b50bbacked Over | 20c | 87.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +322.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 84.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…b707backed Under | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…f3b7backed Over | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…d484backed Under | 78c | 78.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…04d2backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…70a3backed Over | 18c | 70.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf175…1649backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1da1…4e5fbacked Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…28bcbacked Under | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Over | 34c | 42.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 78c | 39.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +9.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 72c | 27.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…de56backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…ea54backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…df27backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…bd8cbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.