TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
AFC Bournemouthof Arsenal FC, AFC Bournemouth
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$171,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked AFC Bournemouth63c31,861$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,860.548962.9%56 W · 33 L+0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Arsenal FC42c23,810$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0003246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed AFC Bournemouth60c14,511$8,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,749.826,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Arsenal FC35c12,999$4,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,489.5419729.4%58 W · 139 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked AFC Bournemouth62c11,751$7,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,465.5610962.4%68 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Arsenal FC37c11,344$4,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,197.421853.2%116 W · 102 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc317…5b24backed Arsenal FC62c11,127$6,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,856.36875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked AFC Bournemouth58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20025752.1%134 W · 123 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Arsenal FC36c9,240$3,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,294.352,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Arsenal FC38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90050644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Arsenal FC38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.991,00646.6%469 W · 537 L-20.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed AFC Bournemouth62c4,927$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,872.315752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal FC32c4,171$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.434,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed AFC Bournemouth77c2,608$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.410768.2%73 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Arsenal FC38c2,550$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9692751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed AFC Bournemouth61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78032158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed AFC Bournemouth58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84033057%188 W · 142 L+17.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Arsenal FC39c1,790$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Arsenal FC41c1,738$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.11,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e92…c03fbacked AFC Bournemouth62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.91145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Arsenal FC38c1,515$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.75448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ee…f7a7backed AFC Bournemouth76c1,348$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.92650%13 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4728…f975backed Arsenal FC39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed AFC Bournemouth60c1,281$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.471,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked AFC Bournemouth58c1,227$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.226137.7%23 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe243…785abacked AFC Bournemouth77c1,104$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.9850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Arsenal FC37c1,087$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.1972249.9%360 W · 362 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7d…eedcbacked Arsenal FC39c913.72$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.358242.7%35 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked AFC Bournemouth58c800$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33636956.9%210 W · 159 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Arsenal FC39c769.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004526.7%12 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Arsenal FC41c571.04$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.1314456.3%81 W · 63 L+13.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Arsenal FC39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007343.8%32 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b5…42f9backed Arsenal FC40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012746.5%59 W · 68 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Arsenal FC41c413.62$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked AFC Bournemouth58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16883459.4%495 W · 339 L+25.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked Arsenal FC33c368.69$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.665026%13 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa852…d55dbacked AFC Bournemouth40c350.07$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.656038.3%23 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed AFC Bournemouth58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12665557.7%378 W · 277 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff8…aa3abacked Arsenal FC38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked AFC Bournemouth58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12660557.5%348 W · 257 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed AFC Bournemouth58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12637958%220 W · 159 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed AFC Bournemouth18c264.39$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.317429.7%22 W · 52 L+12.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+125%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1bbe…1559backed Arsenal FC39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009345.2%42 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Arsenal FC36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9013841.3%57 W · 81 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…d976backed AFC Bournemouth62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.948259.8%49 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed AFC Bournemouth58c240$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.837557.3%215 W · 160 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed AFC Bournemouth58c240$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.835157.8%203 W · 148 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a50…6c6bbacked Arsenal FC42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008332.5%27 W · 56 L-11.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked AFC Bournemouth62c237.41$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0829041.7%121 W · 169 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed AFC Bournemouth59c222$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0221548.8%105 W · 110 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed AFC Bournemouth38c215.88$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0633753.1%179 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4bd…06d4backed Arsenal FC34c210.51$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed AFC Bournemouth74c200.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.353850%19 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed AFC Bournemouth58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8425553.7%137 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce24…6239backed Arsenal FC33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668134.6%28 W · 53 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Arsenal FC40c199.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808632.6%28 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8b…c9b2backed Arsenal FC40c191.53$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.611546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Arsenal FC40c186.05$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7532737.6%123 W · 204 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed AFC Bournemouth58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.637554.9%206 W · 169 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed AFC Bournemouth58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.636259.1%214 W · 148 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed AFC Bournemouth58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.632357.6%186 W · 137 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed AFC Bournemouth58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.681559%481 W · 334 L+32.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8861…e19fbacked Arsenal FC40c175$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed AFC Bournemouth61c170.26$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.458445.9%268 W · 316 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked AFC Bournemouth59c169.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.692630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Arsenal FC36c166.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606428.1%18 W · 46 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c6d…f0f0backed Arsenal FC39c165.28$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.461154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed AFC Bournemouth61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.934348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed AFC Bournemouth62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2930059.7%179 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd4…b42bbacked Arsenal FC25c158.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…5cb0backed AFC Bournemouth63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.737433.8%25 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72e6…7bf4backed Arsenal FC36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+58.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6c8…dd64backed Arsenal FC36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506443.8%28 W · 36 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Arsenal FC41c126.83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5224340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d36…9155backed Arsenal FC41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.446660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.426158.2%152 W · 109 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.432255.9%180 W · 142 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.425456.3%143 W · 111 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.435056.9%199 W · 151 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.432656.7%185 W · 141 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.436758.3%214 W · 153 L+23.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.428255.7%157 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.432755.7%182 W · 145 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.456158.6%329 W · 232 L+29.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed AFC Bournemouth58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.438358.2%223 W · 160 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbadb…6a54backed Arsenal FC39c117.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464040%16 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed AFC Bournemouth18c116.67$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6717744.1%78 W · 99 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked AFC Bournemouth59c105$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0529343.7%128 W · 165 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x979f…4e13backed Arsenal FC39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e12…fe60backed Arsenal FC39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Arsenal FC40c100.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4035743.1%154 W · 203 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4c…37a3backed AFC Bournemouth72c100.11$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b8…3539backed AFC Bournemouth60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Arsenal FC37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Arsenal FC39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3944036.8%162 W · 278 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d292backed Arsenal FC38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed AFC Bournemouth52c99.45$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7557744.4%256 W · 321 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Arsenal FC41c97.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4035328.6%101 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Arsenal FC20c94.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2311712%14 W · 103 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.