Premier League · resolved market
AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe8f9e5c28d721589f33c0b6f1e9f548e3a0f9cec66f4c1b384d7c60f07405df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 22c | 7,007$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.1 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 6,453$4,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.53 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 10c | 5,079$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.94 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 59c | 2,220$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.95 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +13.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 42c | 2,050$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.47 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Under | 41c | 1,979$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.41 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Under | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…70d4backed Over | 57c | 1,163$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.16 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8f…c146backed Over | 60c | 1,154$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 40c | 1,123$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.33 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 59c | 1,016$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.56 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 60c | 1,005$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.86 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…e89dbacked Over | 59c | 974.14$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 974$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.42 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 59c | 949.15$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.15 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Over | 56c | 880.36$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.36 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…ad17backed Under | 41c | 750.36$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 42c | 733.24$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.96 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Under | 3c | 730.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 39c | 721.27$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.33 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed Under | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 60c | 514.67$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.87 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…6232backed Under | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…6321backed Under | 17c | 435.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 21c | 428.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 200 | 54.5%109 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Under | 9c | 399.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 78c | 329.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 12c | 188.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 71c | 175.51$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…c058backed Under | 43c | 163.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 61c | 159.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…041fbacked Under | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…f8e1backed Over | 56c | 116.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…d9b0backed Over | 59c | 115.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…caeabacked Over | 58c | 113.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…c0bebacked Over | 60c | 109.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…32a9backed Under | 20c | 102.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…6455backed Under | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Under | 11c | 91.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a50…6c6bbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Under | 40c | 64.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Over | 61c | 60.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 59c | 57.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Under | 41c | 52.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Under | 28c | 47.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Over | 58c | 46.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…74c7backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde2…67afbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 58c | 39.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…3d82backed Over | 61c | 37.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…d2cbbacked Over | 59c | 37.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7eb8backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…4ed9backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…205bbacked Over | 60c | 30.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 158 | 66.5%105 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea6…00f2backed Under | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 57c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…b07dbacked Over | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…67dbbacked Over | 61c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Over | 58c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5this page
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.