Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c37c76d7a12cc22b37999d53f9d45e657cfc17fbb751ddfe8d9296543f0a757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 2,579$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.27 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 66c | 2,326$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.86 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 60c | 2,215$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.23 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 53c | 899.47$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.68 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 558.56$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.56 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 77c | 532.55$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 46c | 498.43$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.09 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 49c | 480.5$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.53 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 47c | 450.95$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.03 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 42c | 363.15$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 209.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 201.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 196.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 51c | 189.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 183.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 29c | 172.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 33c | 153$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 145.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 22c | 141.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 60c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 139.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 12c | 118$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 113.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed No | 19c | 105.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 24c | 97.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 48c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 93.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 89.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 88.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 75c | 83.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 83.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 14c | 81.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed Yes | 59c | 78.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 51c | 75.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 69.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 51c | 68.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 67c | 63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 54c | 60.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 56.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 54.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 60c | 53.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 77c | 51.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 56c | 51.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 45c | 50.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed No | 68c | 49.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 29c | 41.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 47c | 40.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 50c | 39.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 51c | 37.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…d67fbacked No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 67c | 29.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 52c | 28.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 53c | 28.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 52c | 27.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 56c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 73c | 24.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…e8e1backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.