Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9905160e290b2218e3bfbfb9c76c4bbaf4beae133c14093466f7fdde486441
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 2,704$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.75 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 46c | 1,514$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.95 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 30c | 1,119$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.99 | 187 | 36.4%68 W · 119 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 53c | 1,117$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.71 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 78c | 748$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.43 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 57c | 650.05$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 56c | 507.48$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.19 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 58c | 499.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.25 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 28c | 495.13$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.37 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 53c | 493.55$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.61 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…3484backed Yes | 44c | 483.29$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…35ccbacked Yes | 48c | 419.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 51c | 400$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…2f60backed Yes | 15c | 399.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 48c | 352.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.54 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Yes | 44c | 339.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.69 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 44c | 296.27$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.91 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 45c | 292.04$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 36c | 286.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 44c | 240.72$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 54c | 231$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 54c | 231$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 44c | 226.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…f105backed Yes | 44c | 225$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…19bdbacked Yes | 45c | 221.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9f…0de7backed Yes | 35c | 204.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 56c | 199.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 53c | 198$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…77babacked No | 57c | 191.23$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 61c | 178.57$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 39c | 178.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.93 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed No | 56c | 178.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 63c | 155.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…667cbacked Yes | 15c | 131.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes | 45c | 130.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09d…b15dbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…0744backed Yes | 44c | 113.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…ed09backed Yes | 44c | 90.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…4883backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 65.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…9076backed Yes | 41c | 60.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…fc59backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 28c | 54.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked No | 57c | 51.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…0ef5backed Yes | 44c | 51.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…2578backed Yes | 43c | 49.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c0…87dfbacked No | 58c | 47.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…fbc8backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 44.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 55c | 43.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked No | 56c | 42.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 57c | 35.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 78c | 34.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…2bf2backed No | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f8…898ebacked Yes | 43c | 30.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 45c | 27.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 56c | 27.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 40c | 24.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed No | 60c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…6f61backed No | 57c | 19.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…ba99backed No | 60c | 18.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC leading at halftime?this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Draw at halftime?No won
- Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.