CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: 3DMAX vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d3ad98ab415207158b4e413743300e4cc9fa993dff7c1afda539fdf998ec768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof 3DMAX, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2a5…47d2backed 3DMAX | 42c | 5,786$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked NIP | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed 3DMAX | 39c | 4,296$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.41 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed NIP | 60c | 2,062$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.61 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed 3DMAX | 6c | 2,001$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed NIP | 58c | 1,669$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked NIP | 60c | 1,600$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.14 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed 3DMAX | 41c | 1,500$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed NIP | 64c | 1,246$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.34 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked NIP | 61c | 1,068$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.39 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed 3DMAX | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed 3DMAX | 52c | 841.45$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked NIP | 59c | 794.78$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.66 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked NIP | 63c | 758.65$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.7 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed NIP | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked NIP | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed 3DMAX | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed 3DMAX | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked NIP | 60c | 497.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.19 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed 3DMAX | 39c | 492$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed NIP | 54c | 472.08$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.16 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…200bbacked 3DMAX | 42c | 460.11$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 3DMAX | 39c | 459.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.39 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked NIP | 61c | 445.24$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.64 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked 3DMAX | 40c | 384.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed 3DMAX | 41c | 333$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked 3DMAX | 37c | 330.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.37 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…869dbacked 3DMAX | 40c | 324$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed 3DMAX | 31c | 306.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked NIP | 71c | 267.01$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…bbcabacked 3DMAX | 44c | 264$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed 3DMAX | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked 3DMAX | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed 3DMAX | 41c | 242$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed NIP | 59c | 241.02$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed NIP | 58c | 219.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea0…0467backed 3DMAX | 42c | 167.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed 3DMAX | 33c | 164.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed NIP | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked NIP | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked NIP | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed 3DMAX | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e68…035abacked 3DMAX | 41c | 131$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed 3DMAX | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 446 | 48.4%216 W · 230 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed NIP | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 233 | 51.5%120 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…1c6dbacked 3DMAX | 40c | 118.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked 3DMAX | 42c | 103.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed NIP | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked 3DMAX | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed 3DMAX | 46c | 96.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed 3DMAX | 39c | 93.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed 3DMAX | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 225 | 56%126 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked 3DMAX | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed NIP | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…023fbacked 3DMAX | 40c | 45.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…61a1backed 3DMAX | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…59d1backed 3DMAX | 42c | 37.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0835…c0abbacked 3DMAX | 40c | 36.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked NIP | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed 3DMAX | 43c | 31.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed NIP | 48c | 31.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked 3DMAX | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fa…23f4backed 3DMAX | 40c | 25.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed NIP | 54c | 25.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…be7fbacked 3DMAX | 41c | 25.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked 3DMAX | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…cdcdbacked 3DMAX | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…c747backed 3DMAX | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed NIP | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed NIP | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.