NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Kings: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6a7a7482fd94b281199abd4d440eadc2e323293087093ae2ea85d61f03018f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 42c | 11,999$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.88 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 8,511$4,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,424.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 6,944$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,610.88 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 2,010$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.18 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 52c | 1,060$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.2 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 52c | 1,006$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.97 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 50c | 710$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 28c | 645.83$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.83 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 10c | 432.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…44d0backed Over | 50c | 404$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Under | 52c | 281.54$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…f025backed Over | 50c | 266$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7d5abacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…8a17backed Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Under | 23c | 123$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…9594backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 104.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 49c | 92.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 53c | 42.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 29c | 41.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 52c | 40.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 32.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cec…3873backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 25.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 23.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Kings: O/U 238.5this page
- Heat vs. KingsHeat won
- Heat vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.