NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Kings: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa62d405659d887a6dca159959c581f6a82e82ee4920104969edf66b70f9681a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Over | 52c | 19,007$9,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,131.28 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 12,750$6,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,160.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 51c | 11,486$5,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,684.17 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Over | 52c | 7,269$3,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,486.47 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 48c | 5,417$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 5,378$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.87 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 51c | 5,017$2,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.29 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 3,645$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.65 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 3,006$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.74 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 49c | 2,571$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 2,041$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.38 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 49c | 2,020$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.8 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 48c | 1,675$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 52c | 1,112$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.54 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 48c | 974.65$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.83 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed Under | 53c | 936.5$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 49c | 815$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.35 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 662.82$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.86 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 485.95$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.7 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 451.42$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 49c | 388.14$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 49c | 264.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 48c | 182$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…e667backed Under | 49c | 119.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 50c | 109$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131e…3343backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 50c | 100.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 50c | 96.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Under | 53c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 86.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 53c | 84.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 48c | 83.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 53c | 81.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 53c | 81.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Under | 49c | 72.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 48c | 51.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Over | 51c | 49.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…72e3backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 48c | 38.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 36.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…6c16backed Under | 48c | 34.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2538…b975backed Under | 47c | 32.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…9555backed Under | 55c | 30.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 49c | 28.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Under | 51c | 23.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Kings: O/U 237.5this page
- Heat vs. KingsHeat won
- Heat vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.