NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0838b02658fd0f03ede6b0efc950094ee96a70a2ca0358b577a36d5f92d1a34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $707,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $718,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $707,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Heat | 51c | 557,224$283,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273,743.43 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 49c | 292,180$143,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143,168.21 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Kings | 49c | 100,000$49,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,000 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Heat | 49c | 45,225$22,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,102.81 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Kings | 49c | 40,292$19,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,944 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Kings | 51c | 40,000$20,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,400 | 431 | 48.7%210 W · 221 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings | 49c | 21,500$10,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,575 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Kings | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Kings | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Kings | 54c | 16,560$8,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,942.17 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Kings | 50c | 16,000$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 49c | 14,414$7,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,065.48 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Heat | 50c | 12,675$6,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,337.5 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Heat | 50c | 11,610$5,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,805 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Kings | 49c | 11,111$5,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,444.39 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Kings | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Kings | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Kings | 51c | 7,897$3,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,997 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 50c | 6,743$3,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,365.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Heat | 50c | 5,784$2,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kings | 50c | 5,023$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.5 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Kings | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 50c | 4,800$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Heat | 49c | 4,472$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.81 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Heat | 50c | 4,070$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Kings | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 160 | 42.5%68 W · 92 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Kings | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Heat | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat | 46c | 2,989$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.64 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Heat | 50c | 2,702$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kings | 50c | 2,364$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Heat | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Kings | 51c | 2,073$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.09 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -15.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kings | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 45c | 1,862$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Heat | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Kings | 51c | 1,706$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Kings | 7c | 1,200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Heat | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Kings | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 236 | 30.1%71 W · 165 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Heat | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 51c | 698.01$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.47 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Heat | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…c036backed Kings | 51c | 606.06$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.09 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…5f41backed Heat | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 17c | 540.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Kings | 50c | 490$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Kings | 52c | 446.15$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Kings | 51c | 329.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.63 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Kings | 51c | 295$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Kings | 48c | 221.83$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Kings | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Heat | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…8a1dbacked Kings | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kings | 8c | 156.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3951…c5b2backed Kings | 51c | 151.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Heat | 49c | 151$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Kings | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Heat | 48c | 104.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa90…d716backed Heat | 49c | 102.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Heat | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…058dbacked Kings | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Kings | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Kings | 51c | 73.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…f373backed Heat | 72c | 69.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Kings | 51c | 67.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf700…e16cbacked Heat | 75c | 66.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…af2ebacked Heat | 76c | 65.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Kings | 51c | 64.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…8fa7backed Heat | 77c | 64.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Heat | 49c | 60.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Kings | 55c | 60.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Heat | 50c | 59.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Heat | 50c | 58.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Kings | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…a806backed Heat | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 160 | 30.6%49 W · 111 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Heat | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Heat | 46c | 50.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Heat | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Kings | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…e308backed Kings | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Kings | 47c | 42.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Kings | 48c | 42.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abc…9ff7backed Kings | 45c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Heat | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Heat | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Kings | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5857…9ae8backed Kings | 52c | 39.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed Heat | 48c | 39.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 46c | 39.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Heat | 48c | 39.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Kings | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Kings | 51c | 35.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Heat | 48c | 35.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05a…bf53backed Heat | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Heat | 46c | 34.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Heat | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15c…9e57backed Kings | 50c | 33.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Heat | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)this page
- Heat vs. KingsHeat won
- Heat vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Over won
- Heat vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.