TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$707,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$718,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $707,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Heat51c557,224$283,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273,743.4387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Kings49c292,180$143,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,168.211,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Kings49c100,000$49,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat49c45,225$22,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,102.811,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Kings49c40,292$19,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,94459347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Kings51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,40043148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings49c21,500$10,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5752,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Kings50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Kings50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Kings54c16,560$8,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,942.171,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Kings50c16,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings49c14,414$7,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,065.483,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Heat50c12,675$6,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,337.571547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Heat50c11,610$5,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,80544352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Kings49c11,111$5,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,444.3924554.7%134 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Kings50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Kings49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Kings51c7,897$3,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99747751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings50c6,743$3,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,365.139,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Heat50c5,784$2,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,89215549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings50c5,023$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.54,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Kings50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Kings50c4,800$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Heat49c4,472$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.8147848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Heat50c4,070$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,03513041.5%54 W · 76 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Kings51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00016042.5%68 W · 92 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Kings52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Heat50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat46c2,989$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.642,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Heat50c2,702$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35112454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Kings50c2,364$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1821,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.331,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Kings51c2,073$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.0912740.9%52 W · 75 L-15.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kings49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9802,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings45c1,862$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.414,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Heat55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1850347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Kings51c1,706$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86317953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Kings7c1,200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5344821.4%96 W · 352 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9925…e33ebacked Heat51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49010156.4%57 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Kings51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40823630.1%71 W · 165 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Heat50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Kings51c698.01$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.472,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Heat47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.314346.2%66 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8025…c036backed Kings51c606.06$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.093243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x902e…5f41backed Heat50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3009853.1%52 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings17c540.32$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.158,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Kings50c490$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24553149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Kings52c446.15$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23225951.4%133 W · 126 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Kings51c329.98$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6368940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Kings51c295$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4540648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Kings48c221.83$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0816658.4%97 W · 69 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Kings50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028348.8%138 W · 145 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Heat51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0811051.8%57 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c80…8a1dbacked Kings51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001850%9 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Kings8c156.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3951…c5b2backed Kings51c151.33$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.182763%17 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+37.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Heat49c151$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.519350.3%97 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Kings54c148.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8025056.8%142 W · 108 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Heat48c104.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2337848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa90…d716backed Heat49c102.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.343243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Heat49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0430454.9%167 W · 137 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7cf…058dbacked Kings51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512548%12 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Kings51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.831947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8476backed Kings51c73.48$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.452458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3242…f373backed Heat72c69.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.36988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick73cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Kings51c67.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.512062.5%75 W · 45 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf700…e16cbacked Heat75c66.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.611100%11 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a1b…af2ebacked Heat76c65.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.731275%9 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed85…bfacbacked Kings51c64.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335062%31 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9522…8fa7backed Heat77c64.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.881392.3%12 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick75cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Heat49c60.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.011,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Kings55c60.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1371245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Heat50c59.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9819543.1%84 W · 111 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Heat50c58.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4176250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Kings51c56.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2962744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Heat48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0816030.6%49 W · 111 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Heat51c50.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9832450%162 W · 162 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Heat46c50.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3410462.5%65 W · 39 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Heat48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2638252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Kings51c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f31…e308backed Kings51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat46c49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.466,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Kings47c42.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.124454.1%132 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Kings48c42.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.418051.1%92 W · 88 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7abc…9ff7backed Kings45c41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.451741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed Heat49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.824445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heat49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b5…7b0bbacked Kings36c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.295435.2%19 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5857…9ae8backed Kings52c39.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed Heat48c39.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.753852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat46c39.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.275,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Heat48c39.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.461,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Kings52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Kings51c35.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1217155.6%95 W · 76 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Heat48c35.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4128251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd05a…bf53backed Heat63c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.953351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Heat46c34.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6553043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Heat50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe15c…9e57backed Kings50c33.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.831656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d6…a56abacked Heat49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.616035%21 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.