TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Deep Cross Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,366 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x183f…85e3backed Deep Cross Gaming35c14,868$5,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,201.71,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Deep Cross Gaming36c7,475$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,671.5649940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Deep Cross Gaming36c7,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.9982352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed Team Liquid65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75010449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed Deep Cross Gaming33c4,543$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.2611538.3%44 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Team Liquid67c3,628$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.3312840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Liquid64c3,373$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.1359248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2f…d8c2backed Team Liquid65c3,045$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.733250%16 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Deep Cross Gaming26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78011245.5%51 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked Team Liquid64c2,988$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.58055%44 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f4…148cbacked Team Liquid64c2,171$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.42948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid64c2,073$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.933,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Team Liquid64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72032350.8%164 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7af0…509dbacked Team Liquid65c1,769$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.2325268.3%172 W · 80 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Deep Cross Gaming35c1,514$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.914761.9%91 W · 56 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Liquid65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5251,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Team Liquid65c1,347$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.453046.7%14 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb4b…9f92backed Team Liquid65c1,301$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.362339.1%9 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Deep Cross Gaming32c1,260$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.192,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Team Liquid65c1,257$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.9519758.9%116 W · 81 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Liquid64c1,130$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.651,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Team Liquid67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33010243.1%44 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Team Liquid68c985.29$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.2982953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3054…055bbacked Team Liquid64c937.5$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Team Liquid75c910$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.527745.8%127 W · 150 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5de…cabebacked Deep Cross Gaming36c822.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019336.3%70 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Team Liquid65c766.92$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.4249461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Deep Cross Gaming36c700$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25264749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4cc…e5d1backed Deep Cross Gaming37c543.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Team Liquid65c520$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1821,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Team Liquid68c510.5$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.3628341%116 W · 167 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Deep Cross Gaming36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Team Liquid64c499.98$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9986649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid65c499.6$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.092,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf184…c2d7backed Deep Cross Gaming32c487.8$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.114553.1%77 W · 68 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Deep Cross Gaming35c484.91$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8722748%109 W · 118 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Team Liquid64c468.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.751,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Deep Cross Gaming35c468$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.822142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Deep Cross Gaming11c463.12$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9416819.6%33 W · 135 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Team Liquid69c437.52$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5257957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Team Liquid65c433.85$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.8537640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Team Liquid64c375$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13511146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Liquid61c324.4$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.832,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x344f…ad24backed Team Liquid65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Liquid65c306.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0628250%141 W · 141 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe86a…e272backed Team Liquid67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9924649.2%121 W · 125 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Deep Cross Gaming33c277.4$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5463944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Team Liquid64c265.67$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.649149.5%45 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Liquid66c250$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Deep Cross Gaming33c245$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8518560.5%112 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Team Liquid65c232.08$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0865063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Team Liquid68c201.47$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.475152.9%27 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…b135backed Deep Cross Gaming36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728237.8%31 W · 51 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d46…b09bbacked Team Liquid65c197.72$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.29160.4%55 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Team Liquid68c197$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.047653.9%41 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Deep Cross Gaming34c181$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9920143.8%88 W · 113 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Liquid66c172.17$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.732,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49bc…8e3cbacked Team Liquid67c165.67$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.671163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed Deep Cross Gaming34c162.43$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2528350.2%142 W · 141 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1069…1f7abacked Team Liquid68c161$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb03…46dcbacked Team Liquid64c160$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.642751.5%220 W · 207 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8b6…d353backed Team Liquid64c160$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.64035%14 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6102…1913backed Team Liquid64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.259460.6%57 W · 37 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Team Liquid64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2517650%88 W · 88 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…d3fdbacked Deep Cross Gaming33c156$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.481540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23d0…d98bbacked Team Liquid67c155.22$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.223461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Deep Cross Gaming34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5056949.4%281 W · 288 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x045d…185dbacked Team Liquid68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0663458.4%370 W · 264 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8b…8e96backed Team Liquid65c122.03$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.716157.4%35 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb70c…34cabacked Team Liquid68c110.29$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2915673.1%114 W · 42 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed Deep Cross Gaming33c110$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick59cpaid-43.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Team Liquid64c101.09$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.391,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Team Liquid67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3361746.5%287 W · 330 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d28…0d64backed Team Liquid64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3615143.7%66 W · 85 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Deep Cross Gaming36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3676028.9%220 W · 540 L-0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5423…8b45backed Deep Cross Gaming36c94.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8411352.2%59 W · 54 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Deep Cross Gaming37c92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.042646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Team Liquid55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.915547.3%26 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Liquid73c87$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3170443.9%309 W · 395 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed Team Liquid64c85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.626048.8%127 W · 133 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8397…0dbbbacked Team Liquid68c83.8$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…f273backed Team Liquid68c83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.561361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Team Liquid64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1312351.2%63 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed Team Liquid64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.133857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Team Liquid66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7674949.7%372 W · 377 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540f…92bebacked Deep Cross Gaming33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.752951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Team Liquid64c74.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0434849.1%171 W · 177 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Team Liquid65c70.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6849346.5%229 W · 264 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x750c…d430backed Deep Cross Gaming17c63.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.832653.4%174 W · 152 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Team Liquid68c62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8438257.9%221 W · 161 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b75…409ebacked Deep Cross Gaming35c53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.522832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-37%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed Team Liquid66c51.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6139652%206 W · 190 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x741a…b692backed Team Liquid68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Team Liquid76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2534742.1%146 W · 201 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ce…98ecbacked Deep Cross Gaming40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-42.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Team Liquid68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1618952.9%100 W · 89 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19e6…7d82backed Team Liquid68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51b6…1903backed Team Liquid65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1520153.7%108 W · 93 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed Team Liquid65c44.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6217366.5%115 W · 58 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.