NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e58a3554a50f07aebe0ee0a9221c689d91bfde23ea129786a11cece7e05bf8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pelicans, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Pelicans | 61c | 26,798$16,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,447.74 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 39c | 9,680$3,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,766.38 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 39c | 6,988$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d3…22d1backed Pelicans | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Pelicans | 58c | 2,960$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.13 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Pelicans | 60c | 2,627$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.69 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Jazz | 40c | 2,500$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans | 59c | 1,886$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.04 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jazz | 40c | 1,788$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.06 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Jazz | 38c | 1,240$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.2 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Jazz | 41c | 1,150$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.5 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz | 41c | 428.13$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.94 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pelicans | 59c | 412.4$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pelicans | 58c | 397.71$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.02 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Pelicans | 59c | 314.86$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Jazz | 39c | 297.57$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Pelicans | 58c | 207.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Jazz | 41c | 204.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Jazz | 39c | 198.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Jazz | 41c | 178.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Jazz | 40c | 170.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pelicans | 62c | 161.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Pelicans | 58c | 156.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Jazz | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jazz | 42c | 130.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jazz | 42c | 117.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Pelicans | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pelicans | 61c | 81.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Pelicans | 56c | 80.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans | 54c | 79.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Pelicans | 61c | 76.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pelicans | 59c | 63.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Jazz | 40c | 61.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Jazz | 41c | 57.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Jazz | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Jazz | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Pelicans | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 206 | 50%103 W · 103 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Jazz | 39c | 47.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Jazz | 41c | 46.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Pelicans | 62c | 33.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead8…ce1abacked Jazz | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Jazz | 41c | 32.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Jazz | 40c | 25.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -17.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Pelicans | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Herbert Jones: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Pelicans vs. JazzPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5Over won
- Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 24.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.