Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e9c031d9a9d2e8754a24aeb6c1f97dd476b5fad293af8c269a8c0a8bf9bde86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,210$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.08 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec22…b932backed No | 56c | 743.5$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 552.07$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 477.56$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed Yes | 42c | 343.64$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 45c | 240.11$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 240$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 218.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 207.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 79c | 167.47$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 47c | 159$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 156.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 44c | 153.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 150.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 135.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 45c | 127$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 123.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 121.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 44c | 120.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 118.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 57c | 116.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 106.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 57c | 99.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 96.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 94.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 91.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 89.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 78.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 74.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 72.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked Yes | 47c | 61.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 60.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 56.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 56.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 52.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 57c | 52.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…8d64backed Yes | 43c | 51.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 21c | 48.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 80c | 48.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 51c | 47.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 46.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…3277backed No | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 46c | 42.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…00b2backed No | 58c | 41.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…c110backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…1a00backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 77c | 38.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 37.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 36.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 35.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…fb21backed Yes | 43c | 32.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 60c | 29.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 54c | 28.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 53c | 21.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 53c | 21.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…42b2backed Yes | 78c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 79c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 75c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 76c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.