Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Gaza by October 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f2b958eb35bf374ab830e25a3e45a3878e725ea2be10f7a02c7482036bba464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…d837backed No | 8c | 1,601$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 17c | 1,029$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 78c | 1,004$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.74 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 76c | 853.69$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.19 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 818.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 72c | 806.69$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 19c | 599.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 572.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 76c | 523.59$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…55d6backed No | 20c | 498.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 18c | 470$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…58c0backed No | 10c | 460.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked No | 23c | 420.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 7c | 416.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…4246backed No | 40c | 370.56$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…2c9bbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…f611backed No | 14c | 289.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…9436backed No | 32c | 284.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe264…56e7backed No | 8c | 253.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 24c | 207.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed No | 19c | 206.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 22c | 200.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 18c | 185$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 168$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 166.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…509ebacked No | 23c | 156.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed No | 19c | 153$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ff…fbfcbacked No | 25c | 137.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…b38bbacked No | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…54e5backed No | 42c | 117.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 76c | 108.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…20debacked No | 23c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 100.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…b74ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d49…d5a3backed No | 20c | 98.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed No | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…5297backed No | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 15c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…ac60backed No | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…e085backed No | 21c | 71.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…c454backed No | 29c | 56.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…cdd7backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked No | 24c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 31.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…afb1backed Yes | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…e54bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…8f37backed Yes | 74c | 17.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 77c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 24?this page
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.