TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lynn Visionof TYLOO, Lynn Vision
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,957 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79ae…9a4abacked Lynn Vision35c8,939$3,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,810.5914145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked TYLOO64c6,400$4,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,095.9625655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked TYLOO46c6,212$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.931,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f3…5402backed Lynn Vision36c3,951$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,539.492650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Lynn Vision35c3,770$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,434.017943%34 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed TYLOO65c3,151$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.136560%39 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a81…0e8fbacked Lynn Vision35c3,100$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.37per pick52cpaid+76.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Lynn Vision44c2,551$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.1816946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed TYLOO65c2,479$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.3421854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked TYLOO66c2,122$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.314247.2%67 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Lynn Vision40c2,029$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.461034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked TYLOO20c2,019$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.723,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1bcd…0a69backed TYLOO49c2,019$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.799349.5%46 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked TYLOO45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9981751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked TYLOO65c1,869$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.853357.6%19 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed Lynn Vision52c1,527$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.5919061.6%117 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1680…490dbacked TYLOO65c1,509$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9811457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked TYLOO24c1,462$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.0175245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Lynn Vision34c1,118$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.8821655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e573backed Lynn Vision66c1,000$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.53447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed TYLOO52c948.3$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.1845058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Lynn Vision63c908.11$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.1246165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Lynn Vision63c895.68$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.54,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d7…bbf6backed Lynn Vision67c756.75$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.6719468.6%133 W · 61 L+25.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked TYLOO65c755$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.7598052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked TYLOO50c700$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34894645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed TYLOO50c685.27$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2335054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed TYLOO28c647.35$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3112118.2%22 W · 99 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed TYLOO56c621.28$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.891,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Lynn Vision64c560.16$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.169445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Lynn Vision61c552.39$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.92,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7556…0f44backed Lynn Vision39c518.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.337851.3%40 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa76e…f812backed TYLOO47c505.98$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.815446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Lynn Vision35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32511650%58 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Lynn Vision55c478.05$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.2241475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39a9…c69ebacked TYLOO48c466.67$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2242835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Lynn Vision54c465.76$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.822,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TYLOO11c427$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.955,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked TYLOO44c426.47$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.274,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked TYLOO4c417$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.432,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Lynn Vision54c407$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.082,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked TYLOO42c367.87$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.834,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf957…bcb6backed TYLOO65c360$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2345837.9%22 W · 36 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lynn Vision54c330.49$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.967,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Lynn Vision75c309$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.252,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…5de0backed TYLOO32c303.13$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb621…707fbacked Lynn Vision79c300.19$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.042259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Lynn Vision34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1981,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3835…bcacbacked TYLOO58c299.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.992951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Lynn Vision66c297.39$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.112,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed TYLOO30c260.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.139033.3%30 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lynn Vision61c258.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.81,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Lynn Vision61c257$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.755028%14 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Lynn Vision54c246.25$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.811,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked TYLOO43c234.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TYLOO65c223.57$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.326,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked TYLOO48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd799…326cbacked TYLOO51c206.06$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.321952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed TYLOO47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9468753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a2…feedbacked TYLOO17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3412132.2%39 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ff…3506backed Lynn Vision55c188.11$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.119534.7%33 W · 62 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Lynn Vision33c185.91$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5615838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed TYLOO47c184.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9461054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked TYLOO30c181.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.11,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Lynn Vision47c178.86$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.485240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed TYLOO53c175.01$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.974,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Lynn Vision62c174.52$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.552,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4da…3f9dbacked TYLOO32c174.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.812835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed TYLOO48c167.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4227438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed TYLOO67c165.91$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.161947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked TYLOO58c165.6$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3316142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked TYLOO67c163.15$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11014661.6%90 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f0…9d10backed Lynn Vision69c161.48$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.334975.5%37 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd36…873bbacked TYLOO49c159.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3924648.8%120 W · 126 L+17.4wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Lynn Vision63c157.17$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1566446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed TYLOO61c155.49$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7537850.3%190 W · 188 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2261…ffd1backed TYLOO65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004250%21 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e9…d246backed TYLOO65c152.31$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9926368.8%181 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed TYLOO28c147.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5122053.2%117 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ef…d04fbacked TYLOO49c142.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+73.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Lynn Vision34c142.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0351252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef21…18babacked Lynn Vision35c137.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.142536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72d0…c89bbacked Lynn Vision35c137.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.52846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Lynn Vision33c132.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5625344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed Lynn Vision36c129.94$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.169034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked TYLOO64c128$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9225651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x65fa…4c6abacked TYLOO43c116.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011564.3%74 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed TYLOO48c113.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4326346.4%122 W · 141 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked TYLOO40c103$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.665548.9%320 W · 335 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x971f…1e98backed TYLOO49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked TYLOO62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6272353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72e7…2b72backed Lynn Vision42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Lynn Vision52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4841250.2%207 W · 205 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed TYLOO61c94.33$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.541163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Lynn Vision60c93$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.245646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Lynn Vision68c84.02$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2340137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked TYLOO60c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4858254.3%316 W · 266 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Lynn Vision72c79.11$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8319548.2%94 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf836…e7b5backed TYLOO65c75.54$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.124451.2%125 W · 119 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d42…eb8ebacked TYLOO67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504447.7%21 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.