World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fb123a267b1336bba7d6a4edcde1ecb7cb97864f418bce436fa432ef6f2a5f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 29c | 3,242$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.27 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 477.91$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 428$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 344$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 276.88$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 252.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 38c | 220$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 170.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 35c | 169$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 159.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…7765backed Yes | 33c | 147.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 128.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 31c | 121.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 30c | 117$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 109.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 107.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 106.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 38c | 104.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 32c | 88.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 62c | 80.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 78.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 34c | 64.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…4633backed Yes | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 71c | 52.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 52.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…4937backed Yes | 27c | 51.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…9617backed No | 73c | 49.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 49.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 47.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 26c | 43.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 43.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…0854backed No | 73c | 39.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 37.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 43c | 33.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked Yes | 37c | 30.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 42c | 25.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 17.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5469…c822backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on July 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.