World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee70d0a6b5dbef0f08d6be3714379876a5946e9024a7f0cb475e11962d0fcb2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 1,852$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.72 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 355.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.82 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 338.05$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 265$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 230.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 224$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 214$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.22 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 207.14$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 192$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 49c | 179.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…7765backed Yes | 36c | 138.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 136.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 116.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 61c | 104.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 80.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 78.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 77c | 76.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 71.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 62.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 40c | 59.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed No | 71c | 55.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 61c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 33c | 49.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 65c | 47.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 45.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…df3abacked No | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad30…d3c7backed No | 71c | 37.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 27.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…4633backed No | 64c | 24.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 73c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.