NBA · resolved market
Quinten Post: Points O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fb48d04edf131c98480299b400d2c32657a02abc4bea323ee2e29d8e5bea43c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,888 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb0…22c4backed Yes | 31c | 402.48$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 70c | 238.9$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.38 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 69c | 237.66$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98e5…91f9backed Yes | 31c | 195.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Yes | 31c | 167.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 159.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 30c | 145.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 42c | 135.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x409b…bbffbacked Yes | 47c | 127.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 66c | 71.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…2484backed Yes | 34c | 71.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Yes | 31c | 64.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 69c | 58.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 70c | 43.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Quinten Post: Points O/U 9.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Warriors won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Quinten Post: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-12.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Warriors vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.