TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,849 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09d3…3128backed Yes33c381.73$126 inWon+$255.732454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No67c342.85$230 inLost-$229.821,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked Yes32c305.11$98 inWon+$207.1315651.9%81 W · 75 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7473…89eebacked Yes50c199.1$100 inWon+$99.14151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No69c194.09$134 inLost-$133.9226034.6%90 W · 170 L-20.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No61c147.99$90 inLost-$89.64,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d75…ab74backed Yes50c120$60 inWon+$60966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38b8…9bdfbacked Yes31c105.97$33 inWon+$72.97933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a58…f9d8backed Yes32c103.96$33 inWon+$70.522540%10 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No67c99.99$67 inLost-$66.9995260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No68c54.43$37 inLost-$37.0192058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No67c49.99$33 inLost-$33.4960267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4066…e3c3backed Yes47c42.55$20 inWon+$22.559031.1%28 W · 62 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No67c32.5$22 inLost-$21.781,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No68c24.1$16 inLost-$16.3983158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd94a…4786backed Yes51c22.78$12 inWon+$11.153946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No58c20.48$12 inLost-$11.9750648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No53c20.41$11 inLost-$10.8290863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4729…8cfdbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon+$105139.2%20 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed No69c20$14 inLost-$13.830256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed No73c15.09$11 inLost-$11.0248751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.