Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ff961ed2f9dd81ca29030cd62ebfd6d5afe16b6ef84e0d179bbc12089ee90fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villaof Arsenal, Aston Villa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aston Villa | 78c | 43,448$34,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,428.02 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal | 21c | 31,330$6,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,588.97 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Aston Villa | 75c | 8,019$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.57 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Arsenal | 26c | 7,999$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.73 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arsenal | 26c | 5,318$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.19 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Arsenal | 25c | 4,380$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.89 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Arsenal | 25c | 4,152$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.98 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arsenal | 25c | 3,980$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.89 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Aston Villa | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Aston Villa | 75c | 2,815$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.49 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…4d2bbacked Aston Villa | 75c | 2,792$2,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Arsenal | 26c | 2,191$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.56 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Aston Villa | 75c | 1,825$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.32 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Aston Villa | 74c | 1,613$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.52 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Arsenal | 12c | 1,551$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.35 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Arsenal | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7316…4686backed Aston Villa | 75c | 1,332$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Aston Villa | 76c | 1,314$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.24 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Aston Villa | 74c | 1,288$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.83 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arsenal | 24c | 1,212$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.88 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…e1e7backed Arsenal | 6c | 1,082$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Aston Villa | 80c | 1,023$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.52 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Arsenal | 12c | 966.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Arsenal | 23c | 831.48$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.24 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6322…0c4abacked Arsenal | 13c | 753.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…cb62backed Arsenal | 26c | 700.19$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Arsenal | 26c | 457.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.87 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Arsenal | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Arsenal | 27c | 414.74$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arsenal | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…45f4backed Arsenal | 26c | 384.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…7e61backed Arsenal | 19c | 380.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arsenal | 23c | 372.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…1730backed Arsenal | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Arsenal | 26c | 346.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5648…a6c4backed Aston Villa | 76c | 329.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…2d56backed Aston Villa | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Aston Villa | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Aston Villa | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 157 | 35.7%56 W · 101 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Arsenal | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…b796backed Aston Villa | 75c | 147.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb6…9decbacked Aston Villa | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Aston Villa | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7731…6eaabacked Arsenal | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Aston Villa | 71c | 98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Arsenal | 26c | 92.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…9f6fbacked Aston Villa | 78c | 85.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Arsenal | 22c | 85.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Aston Villa | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arsenal | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…dac8backed Arsenal | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…f58abacked Arsenal | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…857fbacked Arsenal | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Arsenal | 25c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Aston Villa | 76c | 73.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…c030backed Arsenal | 26c | 67.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…22b9backed Aston Villa | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Arsenal | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Arsenal | 23c | 58.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 162 | 36.4%59 W · 103 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…59a6backed Arsenal | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Aston Villa | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Aston Villa | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a4…f169backed Aston Villa | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Aston Villa | 77c | 34.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Aston Villa | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Aston Villa | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Aston Villa | 79c | 21.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)this page
- Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.