Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd801c347d70b45ca60cdad5b10eb0f7baaa4ccd9acda417a303be90c2ccb105b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 22,247$17,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,946.58 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Over | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 17c | 8,997$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.64 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 21c | 7,200$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.95 | 110 | 29.1%32 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 76c | 6,807$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.63 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 26c | 5,744$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 75c | 4,570$3,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.48 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 26c | 4,319$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.29 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Over | 23c | 1,550$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 76c | 1,278$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.83 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Under | 77c | 1,174$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.62 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 74c | 957.02$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 742.04$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.71 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 70c | 713.31$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.46 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Over | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 19c | 520$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe271…1570backed Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -9.5wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 77c | 390.52$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 76c | 381$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 71c | 217$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd55…fc45backed Over | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Over | 24c | 199.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Under | 76c | 190.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 19c | 190$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…d039backed Over | 18c | 166.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…8480backed Over | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 26c | 133.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…e546backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f39…4c71backed Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…cb5ebacked Over | 34c | 114.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 26c | 113.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…ee17backed Over | 26c | 100.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 26c | 93.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 162 | 36.4%59 W · 103 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 24c | 82.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 35.4%105 W · 192 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…ee7abacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 77c | 49.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f001backed Over | 25c | 45.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…7589backed Under | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a4…f169backed Under | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…d655backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae04…7411backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Under | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 3.5this page
- Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)Aston Villa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.