Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4012c12e8a241cd324cf8ca501556c1ba94adc67996131e1492ad96d4cb472c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 985.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 491.8$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 52c | 464.67$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.04 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 349.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 285.51$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 56c | 250$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.42 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 248.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 28c | 199.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 19c | 181.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 170.55$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 102.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 49c | 101.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 98.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 52c | 96.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 38c | 96.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 27c | 93.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 88.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 79c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 42c | 75.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 72.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 38c | 69.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 60.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 55.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 54.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 50.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 50.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 46c | 48.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 38.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 48c | 38.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 37.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 51c | 36.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 50c | 32.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 80c | 31.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 77c | 26.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 76c | 24.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.