Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68a5f166e1dbe4bf1826c1344cca33529ed0b47429666bcf672be2cd8dcd3ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 2,332$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 677.84$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.63 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 593.42$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 585.9$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 26c | 443.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 386.09$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 333.19$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…6775backed Yes | 48c | 319.44$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 303.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 296.17$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 292.78$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…afd2backed No | 53c | 281.17$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 272.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 249.47$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 230.57$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 58c | 224.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 224.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 30c | 220.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 41c | 185.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 72c | 174.03$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.11 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 174$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed Yes | 70c | 170.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 168.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 51c | 168.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 16c | 153.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 75c | 151.77$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 61c | 149.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 69c | 148.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…d900backed No | 73c | 147.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked Yes | 74c | 144.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 75c | 130.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 126.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 119.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 108.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 34c | 107.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 23c | 103.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked No | 22c | 103$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 20c | 100.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 61c | 97.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 89.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 58c | 87.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 23c | 85.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 13c | 85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 30c | 73.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 58c | 73.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 34c | 72.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 24c | 70.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 28c | 62.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 48c | 61.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 21c | 58.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 57.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked No | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 32c | 50.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 49.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 22c | 46.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 51c | 43.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 33c | 43.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 42.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 74c | 40.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 75c | 40.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 32c | 39.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 54c | 37.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 61c | 34.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 48c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 30.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7711…41e6backed Yes | 45c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed No | 73c | 29.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 26.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…cc0cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 59c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 23.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 70c | 23.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 22.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 61c | 19.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.